Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
54%
1.86
25%
3.98
21%
4.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Total xG
2.49
0.90
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
SHANGHAI SIPGDrawChongqing Tongliang Long
1.86
54%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
4.71
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
20%
4.90
Win to Nil
22%
4.57
4%
23.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 11.9 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
λ Home (xG)
1.590
λ Away (xG)
0.897
Total xG
2.487
League avg home goals
1.700
League avg away goals
1.120
SHANGHAI SIPG attack strength
1.150
SHANGHAI SIPG defence strength
1.036
Chongqing Tongliang Long attack strength
0.774
Chongqing Tongliang Long defence strength
0.813
Data phase
CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A)
36 / 6