SHANGHAI SIPG 1-2 Chongqing Tongliang Long – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this SHANGHAI SIPG vs Chongqing Tongliang Long fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SHANGHAI SIPG and Chongqing Tongliang Long meet at Pudong Football Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 21 April 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
SHANGHAI SIPG's overall Super League record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
SHANGHAI SIPG at Pudong Football Stadium this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 1.59 xG and Chongqing Tongliang Long 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.150 / defence 1.036 | Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.774 / defence 0.813. League average goals — home 1.700 / away 1.120. Data: 36 SHANGHAI SIPG games / 6 Chongqing Tongliang Long games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 54% | Draw 25% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 21%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Chongqing Tongliang Long 4.76. SHANGHAI SIPG hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SHANGHAI SIPG if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Chongqing Tongliang Long | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Pudong Football Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Apr 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 54% | Draw 25% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 47% | xG SHANGHAI SIPG 1.59 / Chongqing Tongliang Long 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.150 / def 1.036 | Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.774 / def 0.813 | league avg home 1.700 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SHANGHAI SIPG vs Chongqing Tongliang Long kick off?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Chongqing Tongliang Long kicked off at 12:00 on Tuesday 21 April 2026 at Pudong Football Stadium.
What was the final score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
SHANGHAI SIPG 1 - 2 Chongqing Tongliang Long.
Where is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Chongqing Tongliang Long being played?
The match is being played at Pudong Football Stadium.
What competition is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Chongqing Tongliang Long part of?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Chongqing Tongliang Long is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win SHANGHAI SIPG vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Our statistical model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 54% chance of winning, Chongqing Tongliang Long a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both SHANGHAI SIPG and Chongqing Tongliang Long will score (BTTS).
Will SHANGHAI SIPG vs Chongqing Tongliang Long have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Chongqing Tongliang Long?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Chongqing Tongliang Long in?
SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. SHANGHAI SIPG home split: 2.10 PPG from 10 | GF 2.50 / GA 1.20 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from SHANGHAI SIPG's attack rating (1.15) and Chongqing Tongliang Long's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Chongqing Tongliang Long's attack (0.77x) against SHANGHAI SIPG's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 36/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 2-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
54%
1.86
25%
3.98
21%
4.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Total xG
2.49
0.90
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
4.71
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
20%
4.90
Win to Nil
22%
4.57
4%
23.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 11.9 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are SHANGHAI SIPG and Chongqing Tongliang Long expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 0.90 for Chongqing Tongliang Long, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SHANGHAI SIPG
Pre-Season
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since April 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
1
SHANGHAI SIPG
0
Draws
1
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Chongqing Tongliang Long?
From 2 meetings on record, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 1, Chongqing Tongliang Long have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SHANGHAI SIPG and Chongqing Tongliang Long last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Chongqing Tongliang Long 2-3 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SHANGHAI SIPG home games / Chongqing Tongliang Long away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Chongqing Tongliang Long defy the odds to beat SHANGHAI SIPG 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chongqing Tongliang Long beat SHANGHAI SIPG 1-2 at Pudong Football Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 1.59 xG and Chongqing Tongliang Long 0.90 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Chongqing Tongliang Long outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.15 / defence 1.04 against Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.77 / defence 0.81, drawn from 36/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 54% | Draw 25% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 21%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Chongqing Tongliang Long win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.