SHANGHAI SIPG 5-1 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SHANGHAI SIPG vs Beijing Guoan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SHANGHAI SIPG and Beijing Guoan meet at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena in Super League (matchday 19). This fixture gets under way on Friday 12 July 2024 at 13:35 UK time.
Form & Momentum
SHANGHAI SIPG have collected 3.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 10W 0D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 3.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
SHANGHAI SIPG's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.30 lags behind their overall 3.00 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Beijing Guoan's record over their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Beijing Guoan have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
Form favours the hosts. SHANGHAI SIPG's 3.00 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Beijing Guoan's 1.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 2 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 5 Apr 2024, ended SHANGHAI SIPG 2–2 Beijing Guoan — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
SHANGHAI SIPG half-time and goal-timing data (last 48 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 77% of those occasions; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Beijing Guoan half-time and goal-timing data (last 48 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SHANGHAI SIPG 60% and Beijing Guoan 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SHANGHAI SIPG 65% | Beijing Guoan 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 1.90 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.448 / defence 0.953 | Beijing Guoan attack 0.987 / defence 0.792. League average goals — home 1.660 / away 1.340. SHANGHAI SIPG carry an above-average attack rating of 1.448 — their 1.90 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Beijing Guoan bring a tight defence (rating 0.792, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling SHANGHAI SIPG's projected output down. Data: built from SHANGHAI SIPG's last 48 games and Beijing Guoan's last 48.
Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 52% | Draw 23% | Beijing Guoan 25%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 1.92 | Draw 4.40 | Beijing Guoan 3.99. SHANGHAI SIPG hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.90 / 1.26) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SHANGHAI SIPG if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.16 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (SHANGHAI SIPG's last 10 home games and Beijing Guoan's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SHANGHAI SIPG 90% (last 10 home games) | Beijing Guoan 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, matchday 19 | Venue: SAIC Motor Pudong Arena • Kick-off: Friday 12 July 2024 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 52% | Draw 23% | Beijing Guoan 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG SHANGHAI SIPG 1.90 / Beijing Guoan 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.448 / def 0.953 | Beijing Guoan attack 0.987 / def 0.792 | league avg home 1.660 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Beijing Guoan xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SHANGHAI SIPG vs Beijing Guoan FAQs
What time does SHANGHAI SIPG vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Friday 12 July 2024 at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena.
What was the final score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Beijing Guoan?
SHANGHAI SIPG 5 - 1 Beijing Guoan.
Where is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena.
What competition is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Beijing Guoan part of?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Beijing Guoan is a Super League fixture (matchday 19) (China).
Who is favourite to win SHANGHAI SIPG vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 52% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both SHANGHAI SIPG and Beijing Guoan will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SHANGHAI SIPG vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
SHANGHAI SIPG's attacking strength (1.45x league average) is weighed against Beijing Guoan's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.90. Flip it around — Beijing Guoan's attack (0.99x) against SHANGHAI SIPG's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from SHANGHAI SIPG's last 48 games and Beijing Guoan's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
52%
1.92
23%
4.40
25%
3.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Total xG
3.16
1.26
Beijing Guoan xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
3.99
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
15%
6.71
Win to Nil
15%
6.76
4%
26.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.1 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SHANGHAI SIPG vs Beijing Guoan Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are SHANGHAI SIPG and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 1.26 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Beijing Guoan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SHANGHAI SIPG's recent record stands at 34W 9D 5L from 48 games, a 2.31 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Beijing Guoan, meanwhile, have gone 24W 13D 11L across 48 games — 1.77 PPG, with W-L-W-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours SHANGHAI SIPG by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Beijing Guoan heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, SHANGHAI SIPG have managed 15W 5D 3L from their last 23 home games — 2.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Beijing Guoan's away record stands at 10W 7D 6L across their last 23 away games, a 1.61 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SHANGHAI SIPG are averaging 2.40 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Beijing Guoan are on 1.83 scored and 1.15 conceded. Beijing Guoan's attacking output running into SHANGHAI SIPG's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: SHANGHAI SIPG have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Beijing Guoan in 62%.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
Beijing Guoan
Blended
SHANGHAI SIPG (Home) vs Beijing Guoan (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
Beijing Guoan
Blended
❓ SHANGHAI SIPG vs Beijing Guoan Form FAQs
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Beijing Guoan in coming into this match?
SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 34W 9D 5L in their last 48 games (2.31 PPG), while Beijing Guoan have gone 24W 13D 11L in their last 48 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SHANGHAI SIPG at home or Beijing Guoan away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SHANGHAI SIPG at home: 2.17 PPG; Beijing Guoan away: 1.61 PPG.
Have SHANGHAI SIPG or Beijing Guoan been keeping clean sheets recently?
SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Beijing Guoan in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 5 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SHANGHAI SIPG won SHANGHAI SIPG 5-1 Beijing Guoan on 12 Jul 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 1W 1D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Beijing Guoan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
SHANGHAI SIPG
3
Draws
3
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ SHANGHAI SIPG vs Beijing Guoan H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Beijing Guoan?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 4, Beijing Guoan have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SHANGHAI SIPG and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 September 2026: SHANGHAI SIPG 0-0 Beijing Guoan.
Who has won more matches between SHANGHAI SIPG and Beijing Guoan?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 83% for SHANGHAI SIPG, 56% for Beijing Guoan — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (SHANGHAI SIPG) and 48% (Beijing Guoan). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beijing Guoan in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SHANGHAI SIPG home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SHANGHAI SIPG vs Beijing Guoan Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SHANGHAI SIPG and Beijing Guoan matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of SHANGHAI SIPG's games and 56% of Beijing Guoan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SHANGHAI SIPG and Beijing Guoan matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of SHANGHAI SIPG's matches and 48% of Beijing Guoan's.
Do SHANGHAI SIPG and Beijing Guoan matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of SHANGHAI SIPG's recent matches and 65% of Beijing Guoan's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SHANGHAI SIPG run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Beijing Guoan.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Beijing Guoan 5-1 at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 1.90 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.26 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. SHANGHAI SIPG beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.45 / defence 0.95 against Beijing Guoan attack 0.99 / defence 0.79, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 52% | Draw 23% | Beijing Guoan 25%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SHANGHAI SIPG 65%, Beijing Guoan 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 1.77. Form held, and they took the win. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.30 average — above their attacking norm. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.