Beijing Guoan 1-2 Wuhan Three Towns – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beijing Guoan at 62% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Beijing Guoan welcome Wuhan Three Towns to Workers' Stadium in Super League (matchday 18). Kick-off is Sunday 7 July 2024 at 13:35 UK time.
Form Guide
Beijing Guoan — last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Beijing Guoan at home: 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Wuhan Three Towns have recorded 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Wuhan Three Towns's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Beijing Guoan carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Beijing Guoan's last 10 home games and Wuhan Three Towns's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Beijing Guoan, 2 for Wuhan Three Towns and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Mar 2024, ended Beijing Guoan 1–0 Wuhan Three Towns — a Beijing Guoan win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Beijing Guoan trading profile (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Wuhan Three Towns trading profile (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Beijing Guoan 62% and Wuhan Three Towns 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 53% | Wuhan Three Towns 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 2.45 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.433 / defence 0.893 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.111 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.643 / away 1.349. Beijing Guoan carry an above-average attack rating of 1.433 — their 2.45 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Beijing Guoan's last 47 games and Wuhan Three Towns's last 47.
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 62% | Draw 19% | Wuhan Three Towns 19%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 1.62 | Draw 5.29 | Wuhan Three Towns 5.13. The model has a clear lean to Beijing Guoan (62%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS Yes probability 68% | Total xG 3.78. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.78 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% — both xG figures (2.45 / 1.34) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beijing Guoan at 62% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.78 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Beijing Guoan's last 10 home games and Wuhan Three Towns's last 10 away games) averaging 4.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Beijing Guoan 70% (last 10 home games) | Wuhan Three Towns 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns | Competition: Super League, matchday 18 | Venue: Workers' Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 7 July 2024 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 62% | Draw 19% | Wuhan Three Towns 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% (Under 27%) | BTTS Yes 68% (No 32%) | xG Beijing Guoan 2.45 / Wuhan Three Towns 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 1.433 / def 0.893 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.111 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.643 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.45
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Wuhan Three Towns xG
68%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns FAQs
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Sunday 7 July 2024 at Workers' Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Beijing Guoan 1 - 2 Wuhan Three Towns.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns being played?
The match is being played at Workers' Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns is a Super League fixture (matchday 18) (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 62% chance of winning, Wuhan Three Towns a 19% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Wuhan Three Towns will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Beijing Guoan's attack at 1.43x the league average against Wuhan Three Towns's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 2.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wuhan Three Towns's attack versus Beijing Guoan's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Beijing Guoan's last 47 games and Wuhan Three Towns's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.4%), 3-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
62%
1.62
19%
5.29
19%
5.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.4%
Draw
3 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.45
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
3.78
1.34
Wuhan Three Towns xG
1.62
62%
Home win
5.29
19%
Draw
5.13
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.08
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
9%
11.54
Win to Nil
16%
6.19
2%
59.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Wuhan Three Towns expected to score?
The model projects 2.45 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.34 for Wuhan Three Towns, a combined total of 3.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Beijing Guoan come into this having played 47 games, going 24W 13D 10L for 1.81 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, Wuhan Three Towns sit at 1.47 PPG from 47 outings (19W 12D 16L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Beijing Guoan on 1.81 PPG, Wuhan Three Towns on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Beijing Guoan's home form reads 14W 5D 4L across their last 23 home games, a 2.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Wuhan Three Towns have taken 1.57 points per game from their last 23 away games (10W 6D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beijing Guoan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Beijing Guoan are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Three Towns are on 1.51 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beijing Guoan have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Wuhan Three Towns in 66%.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Blended
Wuhan Three Towns
Blended
Beijing Guoan (Home) vs Wuhan Three Towns (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Beijing Guoan
Blended
Wuhan Three Towns
Blended
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns Form FAQs
What form are Beijing Guoan and Wuhan Three Towns in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 24W 13D 10L in their last 47 games (1.81 PPG), while Wuhan Three Towns have gone 19W 12D 16L in their last 47 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or Wuhan Three Towns away?
Beijing Guoan's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 2.04 PPG; Wuhan Three Towns away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Beijing Guoan or Wuhan Three Towns been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beijing Guoan have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Wuhan Three Towns in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was on 27 June 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Beijing Guoan have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 12 Aug 2022, when Wuhan Three Towns won Wuhan Three Towns 5-1 Beijing Guoan.
Beijing Guoan's record when hosting Wuhan Three Towns specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Beijing Guoan
3
Draws
3
Wuhan Three Towns
Recent Meetings
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Wuhan Three Towns?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Beijing Guoan have won 4, Wuhan Three Towns have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Wuhan Three Towns last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 June 2026: Beijing Guoan 1-0 Wuhan Three Towns.
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and Wuhan Three Towns?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Beijing Guoan at 65%, Wuhan Three Towns at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Beijing Guoan and 70% for Wuhan Three Towns. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beijing Guoan keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Wuhan Three Towns away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Beijing Guoan and Wuhan Three Towns matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Beijing Guoan's games and 83% of Wuhan Three Towns's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Beijing Guoan and Wuhan Three Towns matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Beijing Guoan's matches and 70% of Wuhan Three Towns's.
Do Beijing Guoan and Wuhan Three Towns matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Beijing Guoan's recent matches and 87% of Wuhan Three Towns's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Wuhan Three Towns defy the odds to beat Beijing Guoan 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wuhan Three Towns beat Beijing Guoan 1-2 at Workers' Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 2.45 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.34 xG, a combined 3.78. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Beijing Guoan fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.43 / defence 0.89 against Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.11 / defence 1.04, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 62% | Draw 19% | Wuhan Three Towns 19%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a Wuhan Three Towns win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 53%, Wuhan Three Towns 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beijing Guoan 1.81 PPG, Wuhan Three Towns 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wuhan Three Towns win broke the near-deadlock. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.35 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.