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Prediction vindicated as Shanghai Shenhua edge out Sichuan Jiuniu 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shanghai Shenhua beat Sichuan Jiuniu 1-0 at Shanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shanghai Shenhua 2.70 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.09 xG, a combined 3.79. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Shanghai Shenhua fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Sichuan Jiuniu landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.29 / defence 1.03 against Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.73 / defence 1.15, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shanghai Shenhua 71% | Draw 17% | Sichuan Jiuniu 12%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 71%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 90% and missed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shanghai Shenhua 66%, Sichuan Jiuniu 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Shanghai Shenhua arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights