Shanghai Shenhua 1-0 Sichuan Jiuniu – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Shanghai Shenhua at 71%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shanghai Shenhua vs Sichuan Jiuniu fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Sichuan Jiuniu travel to Shanghai Stadium to take on Shanghai Shenhua. The game is scheduled for Friday 31 October 2025, 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Shanghai Shenhua — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D D W W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Shanghai Shenhua's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Shanghai Stadium this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Shanghai Shenhua are significantly better at Shanghai Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, Sichuan Jiuniu have recorded 3W 0D 7L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sichuan Jiuniu away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Shanghai Shenhua at 1.40 PPG versus Sichuan Jiuniu's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Shanghai Shenhua, 1 for Sichuan Jiuniu and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Jun 2025, ended 1–3 with Sichuan Jiuniu winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Shanghai Shenhua in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Sichuan Jiuniu in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shanghai Shenhua 59% versus Sichuan Jiuniu 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Shanghai Shenhua 66% | Sichuan Jiuniu 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shanghai Shenhua 2.70 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.286 / defence 1.035 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.730 / defence 1.153. League average goals — home 1.822 / away 1.445. Shanghai Shenhua carry an above-average attack strength of 1.286 — their λ of 2.70 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 58 Shanghai Shenhua games / 58 Sichuan Jiuniu games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 71% | Draw 17% | Sichuan Jiuniu 12%. Fair-value odds: Shanghai Shenhua 1.41 | Draw 5.88 | Sichuan Jiuniu 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Shanghai Shenhua (71%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.79. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.79 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.70 / 1.09) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua as the most likely outcome at 71% — clear model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.79 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shanghai Shenhua 70% | Sichuan Jiuniu 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shanghai Shenhua vs Sichuan Jiuniu | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Shanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 31 Oct 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 71% | Draw 17% | Sichuan Jiuniu 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 63% | xG Shanghai Shenhua 2.70 / Sichuan Jiuniu 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.286 / def 1.035 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.730 / def 1.153 | league avg home 1.822 / away 1.445 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.70
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
63%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shanghai Shenhua vs Sichuan Jiuniu kick off?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Sichuan Jiuniu kicked off at 12:00 on Friday 31 October 2025 at Shanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Shanghai Shenhua 1 - 0 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Where is Shanghai Shenhua vs Sichuan Jiuniu being played?
The match is being played at Shanghai Stadium.
What competition is Shanghai Shenhua vs Sichuan Jiuniu part of?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Sichuan Jiuniu is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shanghai Shenhua vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our statistical model gives Shanghai Shenhua a 71% chance of winning, Sichuan Jiuniu a 12% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Shanghai Shenhua and Sichuan Jiuniu will score (BTTS).
Will Shanghai Shenhua vs Sichuan Jiuniu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Record (3 meetings): Shanghai Shenhua 1W | Draws 1 | Sichuan Jiuniu 1W.
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Sichuan Jiuniu in?
Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Shanghai Shenhua's attacking strength (1.29x league average) is weighed against Sichuan Jiuniu's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.70. The same calculation in reverse, Sichuan Jiuniu's attack versus Shanghai Shenhua's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (8.2%), 3-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
71%
1.41
17%
5.96
12%
8.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.2%
Home win
3 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.70
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Total xG
3.79
1.09
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
1.41
71%
Home win
5.96
17%
Draw
8.08
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
7%
14.91
Win to Nil
24%
4.21
1%
120.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.1 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shanghai Shenhua vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Shanghai Shenhua and Sichuan Jiuniu expected to score?
The model projects 2.70 expected goals for Shanghai Shenhua and 1.09 for Sichuan Jiuniu, a combined total of 3.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Shanghai Shenhua vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 58 outings, Shanghai Shenhua have picked up 2.33 PPG on a 41W 12D 5L record — D-D-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Sichuan Jiuniu's form line: 15W 10D 33L from 58 games, 0.95 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Shanghai Shenhua are the form team by 1.38 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sichuan Jiuniu.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Shanghai Shenhua have posted 2.41 PPG from 29 outings (21W 7D 1L).
On the road, Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 5W 5D 19L from 29 away games — 0.69 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shanghai Shenhua come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shanghai Shenhua are averaging 2.34 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Sichuan Jiuniu are on 1.09 scored and 1.93 conceded.
Defensively: Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shanghai Shenhua
Current Season
Sichuan Jiuniu
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Sichuan Jiuniu in coming into this match?
Shanghai Shenhua have gone 41W 12D 5L in their last 58 games (2.33 PPG), while Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 15W 10D 33L in their last 58 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shanghai Shenhua at home or Sichuan Jiuniu away?
Shanghai Shenhua's home record (2.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shanghai Shenhua at home: 2.41 PPG; Sichuan Jiuniu away: 0.69 PPG.
Have Shanghai Shenhua or Sichuan Jiuniu been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Sichuan Jiuniu in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shanghai Shenhua and Sichuan Jiuniu runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 24 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Shanghai Shenhua's record when hosting Sichuan Jiuniu specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Shanghai Shenhua
1
Draws
2
Sichuan Jiuniu
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Sichuan Jiuniu?
From 5 meetings on record, Shanghai Shenhua have won 2, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shanghai Shenhua and Sichuan Jiuniu last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Shanghai Shenhua 1-2 Sichuan Jiuniu.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Sichuan Jiuniu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shanghai Shenhua 69%, Sichuan Jiuniu 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 79% for Shanghai Shenhua and 59% for Sichuan Jiuniu. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shanghai Shenhua keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Sichuan Jiuniu in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shanghai Shenhua home games / Sichuan Jiuniu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shanghai Shenhua play Sichuan Jiuniu?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Shanghai Shenhua's games and 48% of Sichuan Jiuniu's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shanghai Shenhua vs Sichuan Jiuniu usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of Shanghai Shenhua's matches and 59% of Sichuan Jiuniu's.
Do Shanghai Shenhua and Sichuan Jiuniu tend to score early?
Shanghai Shenhua have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Sichuan Jiuniu in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shanghai Shenhua edge out Sichuan Jiuniu 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shanghai Shenhua beat Sichuan Jiuniu 1-0 at Shanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shanghai Shenhua 2.70 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.09 xG, a combined 3.79. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Shanghai Shenhua fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Sichuan Jiuniu landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.29 / defence 1.03 against Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.73 / defence 1.15, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shanghai Shenhua 71% | Draw 17% | Sichuan Jiuniu 12%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 71%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 90% and missed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shanghai Shenhua 66%, Sichuan Jiuniu 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Shanghai Shenhua arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.