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Prediction vindicated as Shanghai Shenhua edge out Henan Jianye 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shanghai Shenhua beat Henan Jianye 3-2 at Shanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shanghai Shenhua 1.94 xG and Henan Jianye 0.99 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Shanghai Shenhua beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Henan Jianye outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.33 / defence 0.86 against Henan Jianye attack 0.89 / defence 0.86, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shanghai Shenhua 59% | Draw 22% | Henan Jianye 19%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shanghai Shenhua 66%, Henan Jianye 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Henan Jianye's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Shanghai Shenhua arrived the stronger side — 2.51 PPG against 1.11. Form held, and they took the win. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights