🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Shanghai Shenhua (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Shanghai Shenhua face Henan Jianye.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Henan Jianye travel to Shanghai Stadium to take on Shanghai Shenhua. The game is scheduled for Sunday 27 July 2025, 12:35 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Super League games this season, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 8W 0D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Shanghai Shenhua, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Shanghai Shenhua's home record at Shanghai Stadium: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Super League appearances (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Henan Jianye — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Henan Jianye have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Shanghai Shenhua carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.40 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Shanghai Shenhua register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Henan Jianye in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The fixture history tells a clear story: Shanghai Shenhua have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 8 past contests while Henan Jianye have managed just 1 wins.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2025, ended 3–1 with Shanghai Shenhua winning.

The historical record gives Shanghai Shenhua a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

In-Play Data

Shanghai Shenhua trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

Henan Jianye trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shanghai Shenhua 55% versus Henan Jianye 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shanghai Shenhua 66% | Henan Jianye 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Shanghai Shenhua 1.94 xG and Henan Jianye 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.335 / defence 0.863 | Henan Jianye attack 0.890 / defence 0.857. League average goals — home 1.695 / away 1.290. Shanghai Shenhua carry an above-average attack strength of 1.335 — their λ of 1.94 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 47 Shanghai Shenhua games / 47 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 59% | Draw 22% | Henan Jianye 19%. Fair-value odds: Shanghai Shenhua 1.69 | Draw 4.55 | Henan Jianye 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Shanghai Shenhua (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Shanghai Shenhua are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Shanghai Shenhua 70% | Henan Jianye 60% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights