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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Shandong Luneng edge out Tianjin Teda 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shandong Luneng beat Tianjin Teda 2-1 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 2.25 xG and Tianjin Teda 0.84 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 1.27 / defence 0.79 against Tianjin Teda attack 0.74 / defence 0.98, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 69% | Draw 19% | Tianjin Teda 12%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 69%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shandong Luneng 66%, Tianjin Teda 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shandong Luneng's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Tianjin Teda's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Shandong Luneng 1.64 PPG, Tianjin Teda 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shandong Luneng win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights