🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Shandong Luneng at 69% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Shandong Luneng host Tianjin Teda at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 1 November 2025 at 07:30 UTC.

Form Guide

Shandong Luneng — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: D D D D W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Shandong Luneng's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across all Super League games this season, Tianjin Teda have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Shandong Luneng 1.90 PPG, Tianjin Teda 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

The fixture history tells a clear story: Shandong Luneng have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 7 past contests while Tianjin Teda have managed just 1 wins.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Jun 2025, ended 0–1 with Tianjin Teda winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Shandong Luneng and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading Patterns

Shandong Luneng in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.

Tianjin Teda in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shandong Luneng 60% versus Tianjin Teda 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shandong Luneng 66% | Tianjin Teda 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 2.25 xG and Tianjin Teda 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 1.275 / defence 0.786 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.745 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.805 / away 1.434. Shandong Luneng carry an above-average attack strength of 1.275 — their λ of 2.25 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Shandong Luneng's defence rating of 0.786 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 58 Shandong Luneng games / 58 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 69% | Draw 19% | Tianjin Teda 12%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 1.45 | Draw 5.26 | Tianjin Teda 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Shandong Luneng (69%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Shandong Luneng are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.09 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shandong Luneng 70% | Tianjin Teda 50% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights