🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shandong Luneng and Qingdao Jonoon share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 10, as Shandong Luneng and Qingdao Jonoon drew 1-1 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 2.00 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 0.94 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Shandong Luneng fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 1.01 / defence 0.89 against Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.73 / defence 1.14, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 61% | Draw 23% | Qingdao Jonoon 16%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shandong Luneng 55%, Qingdao Jonoon 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shandong Luneng's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights