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Poisson rates Shandong Luneng at 61% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon encounter.

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Match Analysis

Shandong Luneng host Qingdao Jonoon at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 1 May 2025 at 12:35 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Super League games this season, Shandong Luneng have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Shandong Luneng at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Shandong Luneng are significantly better at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Qingdao Jonoon — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

On the road, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Shandong Luneng at 1.40 PPG versus Qingdao Jonoon's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

Shandong Luneng hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 4 previous encounters compared to 0 for Qingdao Jonoon, with 1 draws in between.

The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Jul 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The historical record gives Shandong Luneng a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

In-Play Data

Shandong Luneng trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).

Qingdao Jonoon trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 47% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shandong Luneng 53% versus Qingdao Jonoon 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shandong Luneng 55% | Qingdao Jonoon 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 2.00 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 1.011 / defence 0.888 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.735 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 1.732 / away 1.441. Data: 39 Shandong Luneng games / 39 Qingdao Jonoon games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 61% | Draw 23% | Qingdao Jonoon 16%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 1.64 | Draw 4.35 | Qingdao Jonoon 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Shandong Luneng (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Shandong Luneng as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Shandong Luneng 50% | Qingdao Jonoon 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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