Last-gasp drama as Shandong Luneng snatch the points — Shandong Luneng 3-1 Chongqing Tongliang Long.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shandong Luneng found a late winner to edge Chongqing Tongliang Long 3-1 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League. It was 2-0 at the break, with 2 further goals after it. Scorers: Guilherme Madruga (35', 38') · L. Dimata (69') · Xie Wenneng (90'). With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 1.51 xG and Chongqing Tongliang Long 0.96 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Shandong Luneng beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 1.10 / defence 0.91 against Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.85 / defence 0.80, drawn from 41/11 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 49% | Draw 27% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 24%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.

In-Play Signals

Shandong Luneng controlled the ball (58%). That matched the side the model favoured, and they converted the territory into the win the numbers expected. Shandong Luneng shot more often (15 to 8, 6 on target). The scoring opened before half-time (2-0 at the interval). 2 of the 4 goals arrived after the restart.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance. With the decisive goal arriving late, the fixture spent most of its length tracking closer to expectation than the final scoreline suggests.

💡 Key Insights

⚡ Key Moments

📊 Statistics