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Prediction vindicated as Shandong Luneng edge out Changchun Yatai 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shandong Luneng beat Changchun Yatai 2-1 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 2.11 xG and Changchun Yatai 0.90 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 1.16 / defence 0.86 against Changchun Yatai attack 0.77 / defence 1.03, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 65% | Draw 21% | Changchun Yatai 14%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 65%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shandong Luneng 61%, Changchun Yatai 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shandong Luneng's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Changchun Yatai's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.84. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights