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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Shandong Luneng run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Beijing Guoan.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shandong Luneng beat Beijing Guoan 6-0 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 2.03 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.95 xG, a combined 3.98. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Shandong Luneng beat their projection by 4.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Beijing Guoan landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 1.24 / defence 0.99 against Beijing Guoan attack 1.50 / defence 0.93, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 40% | Draw 23% | Beijing Guoan 37%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shandong Luneng 64%, Beijing Guoan 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shandong Luneng's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Beijing Guoan's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Shandong Luneng 1.63 PPG, Beijing Guoan 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shandong Luneng win broke the near-deadlock. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights