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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Qingdao Youth Island and SHANGHAI SIPG share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center, Regular Season - 3, as Qingdao Youth Island and SHANGHAI SIPG drew 3-3 in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Youth Island 1.71 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.24 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Qingdao Youth Island beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SHANGHAI SIPG outscored their 1.24 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.07 / defence 0.94 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.10 / defence 0.96, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Qingdao Youth Island 48% | Draw 26% | SHANGHAI SIPG 27%, with Qingdao Youth Island to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Youth Island 60%, SHANGHAI SIPG 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.60 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Qingdao Youth Island (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights