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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Qingdao Youth Island and Chengdu Better City share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Qingdao Youth Island and Chengdu Better City finished level at 2-2 at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center, Regular Season - 28, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Youth Island 1.17 xG and Chengdu Better City 2.03 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Qingdao Youth Island beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.76 / defence 1.07 against Chengdu Better City attack 1.35 / defence 0.84, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Qingdao Youth Island 20% | Draw 23% | Chengdu Better City 56%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Youth Island 58%, Chengdu Better City 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Chengdu Better City's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights