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Prediction vindicated as Qingdao Youth Island edge out Changchun Yatai 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Qingdao Youth Island beat Changchun Yatai 1-0 at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center, Regular Season - 30, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Youth Island 1.44 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.20 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Changchun Yatai landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.84 / defence 1.05 against Changchun Yatai attack 0.80 / defence 0.96, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Qingdao Youth Island 43% | Draw 26% | Changchun Yatai 31%, with Qingdao Youth Island to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Youth Island 58%, Changchun Yatai 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Changchun Yatai's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Qingdao Youth Island 1.17 PPG, Changchun Yatai 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Qingdao Youth Island win broke the near-deadlock. Qingdao Youth Island (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.28 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights