Qingdao Youth Island 1-0 Changchun Yatai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Qingdao Youth Island at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Qingdao Youth Island vs Changchun Yatai fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Qingdao Youth Island host Changchun Yatai at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center in Super League, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 November 2025 at 07:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Qingdao Youth Island — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Qingdao Youth Island at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Super League games this season, Changchun Yatai have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Changchun Yatai's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Qingdao Youth Island) versus 1.00 (Changchun Yatai). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Qingdao Youth Island have won 0, Changchun Yatai 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Jun 2025, ended 0–1 with Changchun Yatai winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Qingdao Youth Island in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Changchun Yatai in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Youth Island 61% versus Changchun Yatai 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Youth Island 58% | Changchun Yatai 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Youth Island 1.44 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.841 / defence 1.047 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.795 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.774 / away 1.436. Data: 59 Qingdao Youth Island games / 59 Changchun Yatai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 43% | Draw 26% | Changchun Yatai 31%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Youth Island 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Changchun Yatai 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Qingdao Youth Island as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Qingdao Youth Island offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Qingdao Youth Island 50% | Changchun Yatai 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Youth Island vs Changchun Yatai | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Nov 2025, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 43% | Draw 26% | Changchun Yatai 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Qingdao Youth Island 1.44 / Changchun Yatai 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.841 / def 1.047 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.795 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.774 / away 1.436 • Poisson stance: Qingdao Youth Island (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Changchun Yatai xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Youth Island vs Changchun Yatai kick off?
Qingdao Youth Island vs Changchun Yatai kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 22 November 2025 at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center.
What was the final score in Qingdao Youth Island vs Changchun Yatai?
Qingdao Youth Island 1 - 0 Changchun Yatai.
Where is Qingdao Youth Island vs Changchun Yatai being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center.
What competition is Qingdao Youth Island vs Changchun Yatai part of?
Qingdao Youth Island vs Changchun Yatai is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Youth Island vs Changchun Yatai?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Youth Island a 43% chance of winning, Changchun Yatai a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Qingdao Youth Island the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Youth Island vs Changchun Yatai?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Qingdao Youth Island and Changchun Yatai will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Youth Island vs Changchun Yatai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Youth Island and Changchun Yatai?
Record (3 meetings): Qingdao Youth Island 0W | Draws 1 | Changchun Yatai 2W.
What form are Qingdao Youth Island and Changchun Yatai in?
Qingdao Youth Island (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Changchun Yatai (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Qingdao Youth Island's attack at 0.84x the league average against Changchun Yatai's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Changchun Yatai's attack versus Qingdao Youth Island's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Qingdao Youth Island Win
43%
2.35
26%
3.85
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Total xG
2.63
1.20
Changchun Yatai xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
13%
7.76
7%
13.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.6 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.3 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.9 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Youth Island vs Changchun Yatai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Qingdao Youth Island and Changchun Yatai expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Qingdao Youth Island and 1.20 for Changchun Yatai, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Youth Island vs Changchun Yatai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Qingdao Youth Island come into this having played 59 games, going 17W 18D 24L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-L.
On the other side, Changchun Yatai sit at 0.86 PPG from 59 outings (12W 15D 32L), a run that reads D-D-L-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Qingdao Youth Island on 1.17 PPG, Changchun Yatai on 0.86. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Qingdao Youth Island's home form reads 8W 12D 9L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, Changchun Yatai have taken 0.55 points per game from 29 outings (3W 7D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Qingdao Youth Island come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Qingdao Youth Island are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Changchun Yatai are on 1.22 scored and 1.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Qingdao Youth Island have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 59 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Youth Island
Current Season
Changchun Yatai
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Qingdao Youth Island and Changchun Yatai in coming into this match?
Qingdao Youth Island have gone 17W 18D 24L in their last 59 games (1.17 PPG), while Changchun Yatai have gone 12W 15D 32L in their last 59 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Youth Island at home or Changchun Yatai away?
Qingdao Youth Island's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Youth Island at home: 1.24 PPG; Changchun Yatai away: 0.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Qingdao Youth Island and Changchun Yatai runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 22 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Oct 2024, when Changchun Yatai won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Qingdao Youth Island's record when hosting Changchun Yatai specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Qingdao Youth Island
1
Draws
2
Changchun Yatai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Youth Island and Changchun Yatai?
From 4 meetings on record, Qingdao Youth Island have won 1, Changchun Yatai have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Youth Island and Changchun Yatai last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2025, when Qingdao Youth Island 1-0 Changchun Yatai.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Youth Island and Changchun Yatai?
Changchun Yatai have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Qingdao Youth Island are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Youth Island 62%, Changchun Yatai 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Qingdao Youth Island) and 66% (Changchun Yatai). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Changchun Yatai in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Youth Island home games / Changchun Yatai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Qingdao Youth Island play Changchun Yatai?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Qingdao Youth Island's games and 62% of Changchun Yatai's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Qingdao Youth Island vs Changchun Yatai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Qingdao Youth Island's matches and 66% of Changchun Yatai's.
Do Qingdao Youth Island and Changchun Yatai tend to score early?
Qingdao Youth Island have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Changchun Yatai in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Qingdao Youth Island edge out Changchun Yatai 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Qingdao Youth Island beat Changchun Yatai 1-0 at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center, Regular Season - 30, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Youth Island 1.44 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.20 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Changchun Yatai landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.84 / defence 1.05 against Changchun Yatai attack 0.80 / defence 0.96, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Youth Island 43% | Draw 26% | Changchun Yatai 31%, with Qingdao Youth Island to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Youth Island 58%, Changchun Yatai 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Qingdao Youth Island 1.17 PPG, Changchun Yatai 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Qingdao Youth Island win broke the near-deadlock. Qingdao Youth Island (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.28 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.