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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Qingdao Jonoon cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Tianjin Teda.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Qingdao Jonoon beat Tianjin Teda 2-0 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Jonoon 1.32 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.37 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Tianjin Teda landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.75 / defence 1.03 against Tianjin Teda attack 1.03 / defence 1.03, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Qingdao Jonoon 36% | Draw 26% | Tianjin Teda 38%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Qingdao Jonoon win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Jonoon 40%, Tianjin Teda 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.

Tianjin Teda's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Tianjin Teda arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 0.79. Form was overturned, with Qingdao Jonoon winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights