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Poisson model favours Tianjin Teda (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Qingdao Jonoon face Tianjin Teda.

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Analysis

Tianjin Teda make the trip to Qingdao Youth Football Stadium to face Qingdao Jonoon in Super League, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Sunday 27 July 2025 at 12:00 UTC.

Form

Qingdao Jonoon (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Jonoon, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Qingdao Jonoon at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

Tianjin Teda's overall Super League record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Tianjin Teda's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Tianjin Teda arrive in superior form — a 1.20 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H History

Across the last 5 meetings, Tianjin Teda have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Qingdao Jonoon's 1, with 0 draws in the mix.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2025, ended 0–1 with Tianjin Teda winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Tianjin Teda have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Data

Qingdao Jonoon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.

Tianjin Teda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Jonoon 40% versus Tianjin Teda 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Jonoon 40% | Tianjin Teda 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 1.32 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.751 / defence 1.035 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.027 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.706 / away 1.294. Qingdao Jonoon's attack strength of 0.751 is below the league average — the 1.32 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 47 Qingdao Jonoon games / 47 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 36% | Draw 26% | Tianjin Teda 38%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | Tianjin Teda 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Tianjin Teda as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Qingdao Jonoon 40% | Tianjin Teda 70% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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