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Shock result as Sichuan Jiuniu defy the odds to beat Qingdao Jonoon 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sichuan Jiuniu beat Qingdao Jonoon 0-1 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Jonoon 1.82 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.30 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Qingdao Jonoon fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.98 / defence 1.09 against Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.99 / defence 1.10, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Qingdao Jonoon 48% | Draw 25% | Sichuan Jiuniu 26%, with Qingdao Jonoon to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Sichuan Jiuniu win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Jonoon 40%, Sichuan Jiuniu 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Qingdao Jonoon 0.97 PPG, Sichuan Jiuniu 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sichuan Jiuniu win broke the near-deadlock. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights