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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Yunnan Yukun run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Meizhou Kejia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Yunnan Yukun beat Meizhou Kejia 1-4 at Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre, Regular Season - 28, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Meizhou Kejia 1.84 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.48 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Meizhou Kejia fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Yunnan Yukun outscored their 1.48 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Meizhou Kejia attack 0.85 / defence 1.26 against Yunnan Yukun attack 0.86 / defence 1.18, drawn from 57/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Meizhou Kejia 45% | Draw 25% | Yunnan Yukun 30%, with Meizhou Kejia to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Yunnan Yukun win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Meizhou Kejia 74%, Yunnan Yukun 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Yunnan Yukun's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Yunnan Yukun arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.74. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Yunnan Yukun (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.15 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights