🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Meizhou Kejia at 45%, yet in-form Yunnan Yukun provide a compelling counter-argument — this Meizhou Kejia vs Yunnan Yukun fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Yunnan Yukun make the trip to Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre to face Meizhou Kejia in Super League, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Friday 24 October 2025 at 12:35 UTC.

Form

Meizhou Kejia (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Meizhou Kejia, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Meizhou Kejia have posted 2W 1D 7L at Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Yunnan Yukun's overall Super League record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L D D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Yunnan Yukun, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Yunnan Yukun away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

On a straight form reading, Yunnan Yukun are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Meizhou Kejia have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Yunnan Yukun in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Meizhou Kejia 0W, Yunnan Yukun 1W, 0D.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2025, ended 0–2 with Yunnan Yukun winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Meizhou Kejia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 92% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.

Yunnan Yukun goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Meizhou Kejia 67% and Yunnan Yukun 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Meizhou Kejia 74% | Yunnan Yukun 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Meizhou Kejia 1.84 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Meizhou Kejia attack 0.849 / defence 1.259 | Yunnan Yukun attack 0.865 / defence 1.180. League average goals — home 1.839 / away 1.355. Data: 57 Meizhou Kejia games / 27 Yunnan Yukun games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 45% | Draw 25% | Yunnan Yukun 30%. Fair-value odds: Meizhou Kejia 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Yunnan Yukun 3.33. Meizhou Kejia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.84 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Meizhou Kejia as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Yunnan Yukun (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Meizhou Kejia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.32 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Meizhou Kejia 60% | Yunnan Yukun 70% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights