🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Meizhou Kejia cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Wuhan Three Towns.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Meizhou Kejia beat Wuhan Three Towns 3-1 at Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Meizhou Kejia 1.69 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.24 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Meizhou Kejia beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Meizhou Kejia attack 1.17 / defence 1.18 against Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.67 / defence 0.89, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Meizhou Kejia 46% | Draw 28% | Wuhan Three Towns 26%, with Meizhou Kejia to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Meizhou Kejia 60%, Wuhan Three Towns 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Meizhou Kejia 1.02 PPG, Wuhan Three Towns 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Meizhou Kejia win broke the near-deadlock. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights