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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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SHANGHAI SIPG cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Meizhou Kejia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SHANGHAI SIPG beat Meizhou Kejia 2-4 at Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Meizhou Kejia 1.22 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 2.77 xG, a combined 3.99. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. SHANGHAI SIPG outscored their 2.77 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Meizhou Kejia attack 0.82 / defence 1.43 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.46 / defence 0.84, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Meizhou Kejia 14% | Draw 16% | SHANGHAI SIPG 70%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 70%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Meizhou Kejia 65%, SHANGHAI SIPG 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.42 PPG against 0.83. Form held, and they took the win. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.57 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights