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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Changchun Yatai cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Meizhou Kejia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Changchun Yatai beat Meizhou Kejia 1-3 at Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Meizhou Kejia 2.33 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.22 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Meizhou Kejia fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Changchun Yatai outscored their 1.22 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Meizhou Kejia attack 1.28 / defence 1.18 against Changchun Yatai attack 0.71 / defence 1.11, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Meizhou Kejia 61% | Draw 22% | Changchun Yatai 17%, with Meizhou Kejia to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a Changchun Yatai win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Meizhou Kejia 60%, Changchun Yatai 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Changchun Yatai's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Meizhou Kejia 1.02 PPG, Changchun Yatai 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Changchun Yatai win broke the near-deadlock. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights