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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Beijing Guoan run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Meizhou Kejia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Beijing Guoan beat Meizhou Kejia 0-4 at Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Meizhou Kejia 1.61 xG and Beijing Guoan 2.34 xG, a combined 3.95. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Meizhou Kejia fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Beijing Guoan outscored their 2.34 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Meizhou Kejia attack 1.03 / defence 1.36 against Beijing Guoan attack 1.27 / defence 0.96, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Meizhou Kejia 26% | Draw 20% | Beijing Guoan 54%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Meizhou Kejia 60%, Beijing Guoan 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Beijing Guoan's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.02. Form held, and they took the win. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights