Meizhou Kejia 0-4 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beijing Guoan at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Meizhou Kejia vs Beijing Guoan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 15 as Meizhou Kejia welcome Beijing Guoan to Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 25 June 2025 at 12:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Meizhou Kejia — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Meizhou Kejia have posted 4W 2D 4L at Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Beijing Guoan stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Super League matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Beijing Guoan have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Beijing Guoan's 1.90 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Meizhou Kejia's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Meizhou Kejia register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Beijing Guoan in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Meizhou Kejia, 2 for Beijing Guoan and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2024, ended 1–3 with Beijing Guoan winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Meizhou Kejia in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Beijing Guoan in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Meizhou Kejia 62% and Beijing Guoan 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Meizhou Kejia 60% | Beijing Guoan 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Meizhou Kejia 1.61 xG and Beijing Guoan 2.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Meizhou Kejia attack 1.026 / defence 1.361 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.270 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.627 / away 1.356. Beijing Guoan have an above-average attack strength of 1.270 — the away xG of 2.34 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 Meizhou Kejia games / 44 Beijing Guoan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 26% | Draw 20% | Beijing Guoan 54%. Fair-value odds: Meizhou Kejia 3.85 | Draw 5.00 | Beijing Guoan 1.85. Beijing Guoan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.95. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.95 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (1.61 / 2.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beijing Guoan at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.95 combined xG gives a 75% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 73% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Meizhou Kejia 60% | Beijing Guoan 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Meizhou Kejia vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre • Kick-off: Wednesday 25 Jun 2025, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 26% | Draw 20% | Beijing Guoan 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 73% | xG Meizhou Kejia 1.61 / Beijing Guoan 2.34 • Poisson strength factors: Meizhou Kejia attack 1.026 / def 1.361 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.270 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.627 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Meizhou Kejia xG
Expected Goals
2.34
Beijing Guoan xG
73%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Meizhou Kejia vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Meizhou Kejia vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 12:35 on Wednesday 25 June 2025 at Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Meizhou Kejia vs Beijing Guoan?
Meizhou Kejia 0 - 4 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Meizhou Kejia vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre.
What competition is Meizhou Kejia vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Meizhou Kejia vs Beijing Guoan is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Meizhou Kejia vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Meizhou Kejia a 26% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 54% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Meizhou Kejia vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Meizhou Kejia and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will Meizhou Kejia vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Beijing Guoan?
Record (6 meetings): Meizhou Kejia 1W | Draws 3 | Beijing Guoan 2W.
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Beijing Guoan in?
Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Beijing Guoan (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Meizhou Kejia's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Beijing Guoan's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. The same calculation in reverse, Beijing Guoan's attack versus Meizhou Kejia's defence, projects 2.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 8.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.2%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
26%
3.86
20%
4.96
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.2%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Meizhou Kejia xG
Total xG
3.95
2.34
Beijing Guoan xG
3.86
26%
Home win
4.96
20%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.38
27%
BTTS No
3.64
Clean Sheet
10%
10.41
20%
5.00
Win to Nil
2%
40.16
11%
9.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 3.1 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.8 | 6.8 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Meizhou Kejia vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are Meizhou Kejia and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Meizhou Kejia and 2.34 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 3.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Meizhou Kejia vs Beijing Guoan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Meizhou Kejia come into this having played 60 games, going 15W 16D 29L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-L.
On the other side, Beijing Guoan sit at 1.78 PPG from 60 outings (30W 17D 13L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five.
Beijing Guoan carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.76 PPG clear of Meizhou Kejia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Meizhou Kejia's home form reads 11W 8D 11L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.37 PPG return.
Away from home, Beijing Guoan have taken 1.53 points per game from 30 outings (12W 10D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Meizhou Kejia are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Beijing Guoan are on 1.97 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Meizhou Kejia have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Beijing Guoan in 63%.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Meizhou Kejia
Current Season
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Beijing Guoan in coming into this match?
Meizhou Kejia have gone 15W 16D 29L in their last 60 games (1.02 PPG), while Beijing Guoan have gone 30W 17D 13L in their last 60 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Meizhou Kejia at home or Beijing Guoan away?
Beijing Guoan's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Meizhou Kejia at home: 1.37 PPG; Beijing Guoan away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Meizhou Kejia or Beijing Guoan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Meizhou Kejia have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Beijing Guoan in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 22 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Beijing Guoan have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Jun 2025, when Beijing Guoan won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Meizhou Kejia's record when hosting Beijing Guoan specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Meizhou Kejia
3
Draws
4
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Beijing Guoan?
From 8 meetings on record, Meizhou Kejia have won 1, Beijing Guoan have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Meizhou Kejia and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2025, when Beijing Guoan 5-1 Meizhou Kejia.
Who has won more matches between Meizhou Kejia and Beijing Guoan?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Meizhou Kejia 63%, Beijing Guoan 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Meizhou Kejia) and 53% (Beijing Guoan). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Meizhou Kejia have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Meizhou Kejia home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Meizhou Kejia play Beijing Guoan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Meizhou Kejia's games and 63% of Beijing Guoan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Meizhou Kejia vs Beijing Guoan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Meizhou Kejia's matches and 53% of Beijing Guoan's.
Do Meizhou Kejia and Beijing Guoan tend to score early?
Meizhou Kejia have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Beijing Guoan in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Beijing Guoan run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Meizhou Kejia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Meizhou Kejia 0-4 at Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Meizhou Kejia 1.61 xG and Beijing Guoan 2.34 xG, a combined 3.95. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Meizhou Kejia fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Beijing Guoan outscored their 2.34 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Meizhou Kejia attack 1.03 / defence 1.36 against Beijing Guoan attack 1.27 / defence 0.96, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Meizhou Kejia 26% | Draw 20% | Beijing Guoan 54%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Meizhou Kejia 60%, Beijing Guoan 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.02. Form held, and they took the win. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.