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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Henan Jianye and Yunnan Yukun share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Henan Jianye and Yunnan Yukun finished level at 1-1 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 2.31 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.35 xG, a combined 3.67. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Henan Jianye fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 1.14 / defence 0.93 against Yunnan Yukun attack 1.02 / defence 1.14, drawn from 59/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 59% | Draw 19% | Yunnan Yukun 22%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 69%, Yunnan Yukun 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Henan Jianye's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.

Yunnan Yukun's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Henan Jianye 1.24 PPG, Yunnan Yukun 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.21 scoring average — below par going forward. Yunnan Yukun (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights