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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Wuhan Three Towns defy the odds to beat Henan Jianye 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wuhan Three Towns beat Henan Jianye 1-2 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 1.84 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.08 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Henan Jianye fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Wuhan Three Towns outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 1.06 / defence 1.20 against Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.64 / defence 1.00, drawn from 38/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 54% | Draw 25% | Wuhan Three Towns 21%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Wuhan Three Towns win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 43%, Wuhan Three Towns 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Henan Jianye's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Henan Jianye 1.20 PPG, Wuhan Three Towns 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wuhan Three Towns win broke the near-deadlock. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights