🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Henan Jianye host Wuhan Three Towns at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 1 May 2025 at 12:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Henan Jianye — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Henan Jianye at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Wuhan Three Towns stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Super League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Wuhan Three Towns's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Henan Jianye at 1.20 PPG versus Wuhan Three Towns's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

Wuhan Three Towns have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 6 encounters against Henan Jianye's 1 victories.

The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2024, ended 0–1 with Wuhan Three Towns winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Wuhan Three Towns have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Profile

Henan Jianye in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).

Wuhan Three Towns in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 52% versus Wuhan Three Towns 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 43% | Wuhan Three Towns 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.84 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 1.064 / defence 1.199 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.635 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.723 / away 1.418. Data: 38 Henan Jianye games / 39 Wuhan Three Towns games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 54% | Draw 25% | Wuhan Three Towns 21%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Wuhan Three Towns 4.76. Henan Jianye hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Henan Jianye at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 2.1 goals per game points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Henan Jianye 40% | Wuhan Three Towns 50%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights