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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Tianjin Teda defy the odds to beat Henan Jianye 3-4.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Tianjin Teda beat Henan Jianye 3-4 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 1.64 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.51 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Henan Jianye beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Tianjin Teda outscored their 1.51 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 1.01 / defence 1.29 against Tianjin Teda attack 0.83 / defence 0.96, drawn from 39/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 40% | Draw 26% | Tianjin Teda 34%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Tianjin Teda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 43%, Tianjin Teda 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Henan Jianye's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Tianjin Teda's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Henan Jianye 1.20 PPG, Tianjin Teda 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tianjin Teda win broke the near-deadlock. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights