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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 40%, yet in-form Tianjin Teda provide a compelling counter-argument — this Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Henan Jianye host Tianjin Teda at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 5 May 2025 at 12:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Henan Jianye stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Henan Jianye's home record at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Super League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Tianjin Teda — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Tianjin Teda — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H Record

Tianjin Teda have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 7 encounters against Henan Jianye's 1 victories.

The last 7 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2024, ended 0–1 with Tianjin Teda winning.

It is worth noting that Tianjin Teda have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

In-Play Profile

Henan Jianye in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).

Tianjin Teda in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 52% versus Tianjin Teda 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 43% | Tianjin Teda 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.64 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 1.012 / defence 1.292 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.826 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.696 / away 1.418. Data: 39 Henan Jianye games / 40 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 40% | Draw 26% | Tianjin Teda 34%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Tianjin Teda 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Henan Jianye as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Tianjin Teda (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.15 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Henan Jianye 40% | Tianjin Teda 80% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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