Henan Jianye 4-1 Sichuan Jiuniu – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Henan Jianye vs Sichuan Jiuniu fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Henan Jianye and Sichuan Jiuniu meet at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Friday 8 August 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Henan Jianye's overall Super League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Henan Jianye's home record at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Super League appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sichuan Jiuniu (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sichuan Jiuniu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sichuan Jiuniu away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Henan Jianye, 1.00 for Sichuan Jiuniu — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Henan Jianye 1W, Sichuan Jiuniu 1W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2025, ended 3–1 with Henan Jianye winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Henan Jianye — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Sichuan Jiuniu — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 63% versus Sichuan Jiuniu 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 55% | Sichuan Jiuniu 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 2.34 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 1.010 / defence 1.288 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.669 / defence 1.328. League average goals — home 1.742 / away 1.361. Sichuan Jiuniu bring a strong defensive rating of 1.328 — this is suppressing Henan Jianye's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Henan Jianye games / 49 Sichuan Jiuniu games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 63% | Draw 20% | Sichuan Jiuniu 17%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 1.59 | Draw 5.00 | Sichuan Jiuniu 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Henan Jianye (63%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.34 / 1.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Henan Jianye at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.51 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Henan Jianye 90% | Sichuan Jiuniu 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Sichuan Jiuniu | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 8 Aug 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 63% | Draw 20% | Sichuan Jiuniu 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 63% | xG Henan Jianye 2.34 / Sichuan Jiuniu 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 1.010 / def 1.288 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.669 / def 1.328 | league avg home 1.742 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.34
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
63%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Sichuan Jiuniu kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Sichuan Jiuniu kicked off at 13:00 on Friday 8 August 2025 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Henan Jianye 4 - 1 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Sichuan Jiuniu being played?
The match is being played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Sichuan Jiuniu part of?
Henan Jianye vs Sichuan Jiuniu is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 63% chance of winning, Sichuan Jiuniu a 17% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Henan Jianye and Sichuan Jiuniu will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Sichuan Jiuniu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Record (3 meetings): Henan Jianye 1W | Draws 1 | Sichuan Jiuniu 1W.
What form are Henan Jianye and Sichuan Jiuniu in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Henan Jianye's attack at 1.01x the league average against Sichuan Jiuniu's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 2.34 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sichuan Jiuniu's attack (0.67x) against Henan Jianye's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
63%
1.59
20%
5.09
17%
5.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
2 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.34
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
3.51
1.17
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
1.59
63%
Home win
5.09
20%
Draw
5.74
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
10%
10.35
Win to Nil
19%
5.13
2%
59.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Sichuan Jiuniu expected to score?
The model projects 2.34 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 1.17 for Sichuan Jiuniu, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 49 outings, Henan Jianye have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 13W 13D 23L record — L-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sichuan Jiuniu's form line: 12W 10D 27L from 49 games, 0.94 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Sichuan Jiuniu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for Henan Jianye against 0.94 for Sichuan Jiuniu. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Henan Jianye have posted 1.21 PPG from 24 outings (8W 5D 11L).
On the road, Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 4W 5D 15L from 24 away games — 0.71 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Henan Jianye come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Henan Jianye are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Sichuan Jiuniu are on 1.08 scored and 1.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Henan Jianye have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Blended
Sichuan Jiuniu
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Henan Jianye and Sichuan Jiuniu in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 13W 13D 23L in their last 49 games (1.06 PPG), while Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 12W 10D 27L in their last 49 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Sichuan Jiuniu away?
Henan Jianye's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 1.21 PPG; Sichuan Jiuniu away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 15 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Henan Jianye have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Henan Jianye won 4-1 on 8 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Henan Jianye have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sichuan Jiuniu — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Henan Jianye
1
Draws
1
Sichuan Jiuniu
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Sichuan Jiuniu?
From 5 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 3, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Sichuan Jiuniu last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Henan Jianye 1-0 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Henan Jianye have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Sichuan Jiuniu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 67%, Sichuan Jiuniu 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Henan Jianye) and 58% (Sichuan Jiuniu). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sichuan Jiuniu in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Sichuan Jiuniu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Henan Jianye play Sichuan Jiuniu?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Henan Jianye's games and 46% of Sichuan Jiuniu's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Henan Jianye vs Sichuan Jiuniu usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Henan Jianye's matches and 58% of Sichuan Jiuniu's.
Do Henan Jianye and Sichuan Jiuniu tend to score early?
Henan Jianye have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Sichuan Jiuniu in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Henan Jianye run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Sichuan Jiuniu.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye beat Sichuan Jiuniu 4-1 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 2.34 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.17 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Henan Jianye beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 1.01 / defence 1.29 against Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.67 / defence 1.33, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 63% | Draw 20% | Sichuan Jiuniu 17%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 55%, Sichuan Jiuniu 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Henan Jianye 1.06 PPG, Sichuan Jiuniu 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Henan Jianye win broke the near-deadlock. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.