Henan Jianye 1-3 SHANGHAI SIPG – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours SHANGHAI SIPG (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Henan Jianye face SHANGHAI SIPG.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SHANGHAI SIPG make the trip to Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium to face Henan Jianye in Super League, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Wednesday 18 June 2025 at 12:35 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Henan Jianye have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Henan Jianye have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
SHANGHAI SIPG (all games): 8W 0D 2L across 10 Super League outings this term — 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
SHANGHAI SIPG away from home this season: 8W 0D 2L from 10 away games — 2.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. SHANGHAI SIPG are 1.20 PPG clear of Henan Jianye in recent Super League fixtures (2.40 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Henan Jianye lead 2W to 4W over the last 6 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 Jul 2024, ended 0–1 with SHANGHAI SIPG winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Henan Jianye goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
SHANGHAI SIPG goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 52% versus SHANGHAI SIPG 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 43% | SHANGHAI SIPG 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.96 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 2.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 1.230 / defence 1.371 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.422 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.661 / away 1.333. SHANGHAI SIPG have an above-average attack strength of 1.422 — the away xG of 2.60 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 43 Henan Jianye games / 43 SHANGHAI SIPG games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 29% | Draw 19% | SHANGHAI SIPG 52%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 3.45 | Draw 5.26 | SHANGHAI SIPG 1.92. SHANGHAI SIPG hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (19%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 83% | BTTS probability 80% | Total xG 4.56. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 83% — a total xG of 4.56 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 80% reflects that both xG figures (1.96 / 2.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SHANGHAI SIPG at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 4.56 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 83% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 80% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Henan Jianye 40% | SHANGHAI SIPG 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 18 Jun 2025, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 29% | Draw 19% | SHANGHAI SIPG 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 83% | BTTS 80% | xG Henan Jianye 1.96 / SHANGHAI SIPG 2.60 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 1.230 / def 1.371 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.422 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.661 / away 1.333 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
2.60
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
80%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
83%
Over 2.5
67%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG kick off?
Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG kicked off at 12:35 on Wednesday 18 June 2025 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Henan Jianye 1 - 3 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Where is Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG being played?
The match is being played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG part of?
Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 29% chance of winning, SHANGHAI SIPG a 52% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our model estimates a 80% probability that both Henan Jianye and SHANGHAI SIPG will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 83%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and SHANGHAI SIPG?
Record (6 meetings): Henan Jianye 2W | Draws 0 | SHANGHAI SIPG 4W.
What form are Henan Jianye and SHANGHAI SIPG in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Henan Jianye's attack at 1.23x the league average against SHANGHAI SIPG's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.96 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SHANGHAI SIPG's attack (1.42x) against Henan Jianye's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 2.60.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 6.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-2 (6.8%), 1-1 (6.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 20% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
29%
3.44
19%
5.29
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
6.9%
Away win
Most likely
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
1 – 3
6.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
4.56
2.60
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
3.44
29%
Home win
5.29
19%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
83%
Over 2.5
1.20
17%
Under 2.5
5.88
67%
Over 3.5
1.49
33%
Under 3.5
3.03
48%
Over 4.5
2.08
52%
Under 4.5
1.92
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
80%
BTTS Yes
1.25
20%
BTTS No
4.93
Clean Sheet
7%
13.46
14%
7.10
Win to Nil
2%
46.31
7%
13.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.0 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 2.1 | 5.3 | 6.9 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 2.0 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 5.2 | 6.8 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 2.0 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 6.9%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and SHANGHAI SIPG expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 2.60 for SHANGHAI SIPG, a combined total of 4.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Henan Jianye come into this having played 60 games, going 18W 18D 24L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-D.
On the other side, SHANGHAI SIPG sit at 2.35 PPG from 60 outings (44W 9D 7L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five.
SHANGHAI SIPG carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.15 PPG clear of Henan Jianye — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Henan Jianye's home form reads 13W 9D 8L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Henan Jianye are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, SHANGHAI SIPG have taken 2.33 points per game from 30 outings (22W 4D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Henan Jianye are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; SHANGHAI SIPG are on 2.62 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SHANGHAI SIPG in 60%.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Current Season
SHANGHAI SIPG
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Henan Jianye and SHANGHAI SIPG in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 18W 18D 24L in their last 60 games (1.20 PPG), while SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 44W 9D 7L in their last 60 (2.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or SHANGHAI SIPG away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 1.60 PPG; SHANGHAI SIPG away: 2.33 PPG.
Have Henan Jianye or SHANGHAI SIPG been keeping clean sheets recently?
Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, SHANGHAI SIPG in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 27 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SHANGHAI SIPG won 4-1 on 15 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Henan Jianye have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SHANGHAI SIPG — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Henan Jianye
0
Draws
7
SHANGHAI SIPG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and SHANGHAI SIPG?
From 10 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 3, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and SHANGHAI SIPG last play each other?
They last met on 27 June 2026, when Henan Jianye 1-2 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and SHANGHAI SIPG?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 50%, SHANGHAI SIPG 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Henan Jianye) and 63% (SHANGHAI SIPG).
On the defensive side: Henan Jianye keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; SHANGHAI SIPG in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / SHANGHAI SIPG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Henan Jianye play SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Henan Jianye's recent matches and 43% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Henan Jianye's recent games and 63% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Henan Jianye and SHANGHAI SIPG tend to score early?
Henan Jianye have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, SHANGHAI SIPG in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SHANGHAI SIPG cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Henan Jianye.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Henan Jianye 1-3 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 1.96 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 2.60 xG, a combined 4.56. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Henan Jianye fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 1.23 / defence 1.37 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.42 / defence 0.96, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 29% | Draw 19% | SHANGHAI SIPG 52%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 83%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 67% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 80% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 43%, SHANGHAI SIPG 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 1.20. That form edge translated into the three points. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.