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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Henan Jianye and Shandong Luneng share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Henan Jianye and Shandong Luneng finished level at 2-2 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 2.30 xG and Shandong Luneng 2.27 xG, a combined 4.57. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 1.15 / defence 1.40 against Shandong Luneng attack 1.22 / defence 1.20, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 41% | Draw 19% | Shandong Luneng 40%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 83%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 67% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 81% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 43%, Shandong Luneng 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Henan Jianye's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Shandong Luneng's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights