🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium plays host to Henan Jianye versus Shandong Luneng in Super League, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Monday 30 June 2025 at 12:00 UTC.

Current Form

Henan Jianye's overall Super League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

In front of their own supporters this season, Henan Jianye have posted 5W 1D 4L at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Shandong Luneng have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

When travelling in Super League this season, Shandong Luneng have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Henan Jianye, 4 for Shandong Luneng and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Feb 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Henan Jianye half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).

Shandong Luneng half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 52% versus Shandong Luneng 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 43% | Shandong Luneng 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 2.30 xG and Shandong Luneng 2.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 1.145 / defence 1.399 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.221 / defence 1.199. League average goals — home 1.679 / away 1.328. Shandong Luneng have an above-average attack strength of 1.221 — the away xG of 2.27 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 45 Henan Jianye games / 45 Shandong Luneng games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 41% | Draw 19% | Shandong Luneng 40%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 2.44 | Draw 5.26 | Shandong Luneng 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 19% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 83% | BTTS probability 81% | Total xG 4.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 83% — a total xG of 4.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 81% reflects that both xG figures (2.30 / 2.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Henan Jianye are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. The opposing side holds a 40% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 4.57 combined xG gives a 83% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 81%. Form rates are neutral: Henan Jianye 40% | Shandong Luneng 50%.

The outsider holds a 40% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights