Henan Jianye 5-1 Qingdao Jonoon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Qingdao Jonoon travel to Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium to take on Henan Jianye. The game is scheduled for Friday 17 July 2026, 11:35 UTC.
Betting Odds
The market has installed Henan Jianye as the clear favourite — Henan Jianye 1.58 (implied 59%), Draw 3.98 (23%), Qingdao Jonoon 5.26 (implied 18%).
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Henan Jianye stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Henan Jianye have posted 3W 3D 4L at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across all Super League games this season, Qingdao Jonoon have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Jonoon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Henan Jianye at 1.30 PPG versus Qingdao Jonoon's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Henan Jianye have won 3, Qingdao Jonoon 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 7 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2026, ended 0–1 with Qingdao Jonoon winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Henan Jianye in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Qingdao Jonoon in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Henan Jianye 66% and Qingdao Jonoon 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 64% | Qingdao Jonoon 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.62 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 0.765 / defence 0.982 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.026 / defence 1.219. League average goals — home 1.735 / away 1.367. Henan Jianye's attack strength of 0.765 is below the league average — the 1.62 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Qingdao Jonoon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.219 — this is suppressing Henan Jianye's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Henan Jianye games / 48 Qingdao Jonoon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 43% | Draw 24% | Qingdao Jonoon 33%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 2.33 | Draw 4.17 | Qingdao Jonoon 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.62 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Henan Jianye are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. The model sees Henan Jianye as less likely than the market's pricing reflects — Poisson 43% versus the market's fair-implied 59% (priced at 1.58). With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction. The market (1.65, fair-implied 57%) is broadly in line with the Poisson probability.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Henan Jianye 50% | Qingdao Jonoon 80% BTTS from recent games. Market pricing (1.67, fair-implied 55%) is broadly in line with the Poisson read on BTTS.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 17 Jul 2026, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 43% | Draw 24% | Qingdao Jonoon 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Henan Jianye 1.62 / Qingdao Jonoon 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 0.765 / def 0.982 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.026 / def 1.219 | league avg home 1.735 / away 1.367 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• 1X2 market: Henan Jianye 1.58 (impl 59%) | Draw 3.98 (impl 23%) | Qingdao Jonoon 5.26 (impl 18%) • Market favourite: Henan Jianye at 1.58 • Poisson vs market: same direction (Henan Jianye) but Poisson rates them at 43% vs market implied 59% — model sees a 16pp premium worth monitoring • Henan Jianye Win: Poisson 43% vs market fair-implied 59% (16pp gap) — the model sees Henan Jianye as less likely than the market's pricing reflects. • Qingdao Jonoon Win: Poisson 33% vs market fair-implied 18% (15pp gap) — the model sees Qingdao Jonoon as more likely than the market's pricing reflects. • Goals market: Over 2.5 1.65 (impl 61%) / Under 2.5 2.16 (impl 46%) | Poisson Over 2.5 probability 58% • BTTS market: BTTS Yes 1.67 (impl 60%) / No 2.07 (impl 48%) | Poisson BTTS probability 60%
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Qingdao Jonoon xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon kicked off at 11:35 on Friday 17 July 2026 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Henan Jianye 5 - 1 Qingdao Jonoon.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon being played?
The match is being played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon part of?
Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 43% chance of winning, Qingdao Jonoon a 33% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Henan Jianye and Qingdao Jonoon will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Qingdao Jonoon?
Record (7 meetings): Henan Jianye 3W | Draws 2 | Qingdao Jonoon 2W.
What form are Henan Jianye and Qingdao Jonoon in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon?
1X2 market: Henan Jianye 1.58 (impl 59%) | Draw 3.98 (impl 23%) | Qingdao Jonoon 5.26 (impl 18%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Henan Jianye's attack rating (0.77) and Qingdao Jonoon's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Qingdao Jonoon's attack versus Henan Jianye's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
43%
2.32
24%
4.14
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
3.00
1.38
Qingdao Jonoon xG
2.32
43%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
20%
5.04
Win to Nil
11%
9.19
6%
15.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.1 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.0 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Qingdao Jonoon expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 1.38 for Qingdao Jonoon, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Henan Jianye's recent record stands at 16W 10D 21L from 47 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Qingdao Jonoon, meanwhile, have gone 11W 12D 24L across 47 games — 0.96 PPG, with L-L-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Qingdao Jonoon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Henan Jianye on 1.23 PPG, Qingdao Jonoon on 0.96. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Henan Jianye have managed 9W 5D 9L from 23 games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Qingdao Jonoon's away record stands at 2W 5D 16L across 23 trips, a 0.48 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.96 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Qingdao Jonoon's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Henan Jianye come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Henan Jianye are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Jonoon are on 1.32 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Henan Jianye have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Blended
Qingdao Jonoon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Henan Jianye and Qingdao Jonoon in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 16W 10D 21L in their last 47 games (1.23 PPG), while Qingdao Jonoon have gone 11W 12D 24L in their last 47 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Qingdao Jonoon away?
Henan Jianye's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 1.39 PPG; Qingdao Jonoon away: 0.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 17 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jul 2026, when Henan Jianye won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Henan Jianye's record when hosting Qingdao Jonoon specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Henan Jianye
2
Draws
2
Qingdao Jonoon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Qingdao Jonoon?
From 8 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 4, Qingdao Jonoon have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Qingdao Jonoon last play each other?
They last met on 17 July 2026, when Henan Jianye 5-1 Qingdao Jonoon.
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and Qingdao Jonoon?
Henan Jianye have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Qingdao Jonoon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 65%, Qingdao Jonoon 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Henan Jianye and 56% for Qingdao Jonoon. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Qingdao Jonoon in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Qingdao Jonoon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Henan Jianye play Qingdao Jonoon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Henan Jianye's games and 61% of Qingdao Jonoon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Henan Jianye's matches and 56% of Qingdao Jonoon's.
Do Henan Jianye and Qingdao Jonoon tend to score early?
Henan Jianye have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Qingdao Jonoon in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Henan Jianye run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Qingdao Jonoon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye beat Qingdao Jonoon 5-1 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 1.62 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.38 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Henan Jianye beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 0.77 / defence 0.98 against Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.03 / defence 1.22, drawn from 47/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 43% | Draw 24% | Qingdao Jonoon 33%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 64%, Qingdao Jonoon 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Henan Jianye 1.23 PPG, Qingdao Jonoon 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Henan Jianye win broke the near-deadlock. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.78 average — above their attacking norm. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.