Henan Jianye 2-0 Qingdao Huanghai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as Henan Jianye take on Qingdao Huanghai.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Henan Jianye host Qingdao Huanghai at Yuexiushan Stadium in Super League (matchday 6). Kick-off is Sunday 18 July 2021 at 12:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Henan Jianye — last 5 games: 0W 3D 2L, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Henan Jianye have gone 0W 2D 1L in their last 3 home games (0.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 5 games, Qingdao Huanghai have recorded 2W 1D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Qingdao Huanghai — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
Henan Jianye in-play and half-time data (last 5 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games.
Qingdao Huanghai in-play and half-time data (last 5 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 40% of their matches; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 60% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 80% versus Qingdao Huanghai 20%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Henan Jianye 40% | Qingdao Huanghai 20%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 0.99 xG and Qingdao Huanghai 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 0.967 / defence 1.166 | Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.696 / defence 1.152. League average goals — home 0.889 / away 1.109. Qingdao Huanghai's attack rating of 0.696 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.90. Data: built from Henan Jianye's last 5 games and Qingdao Huanghai's last 5.
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 33% | Draw 40% | Qingdao Huanghai 28%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 3.06 | Draw 2.53 | Qingdao Huanghai 3.60. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.89 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 71% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Henan Jianye's last 3 home games and Qingdao Huanghai's last 5 games) averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Henan Jianye 100% (last 3 home games) | Qingdao Huanghai 20% (last 5 games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Huanghai | Competition: Super League, matchday 6 | Venue: Yuexiushan Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 18 July 2021 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 33% | Draw 40% | Qingdao Huanghai 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% (Under 71%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Henan Jianye 0.99 / Qingdao Huanghai 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 0.967 / def 1.166 | Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.696 / def 1.152 | league avg home 0.889 / away 1.109 • Poisson stance: Draw (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Qingdao Huanghai xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Huanghai FAQs
What time does Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Huanghai kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Huanghai kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Sunday 18 July 2021 at Yuexiushan Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Huanghai?
Henan Jianye 2 - 0 Qingdao Huanghai.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Huanghai being played?
The match is being played at Yuexiushan Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Huanghai part of?
Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Huanghai is a Super League fixture (matchday 6) (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Huanghai?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 33% chance of winning, Qingdao Huanghai a 28% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Huanghai?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Henan Jianye and Qingdao Huanghai will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Huanghai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (71%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Henan Jianye's attack rating (0.97) and Qingdao Huanghai's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Qingdao Huanghai's attack versus Henan Jianye's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Henan Jianye's last 5 games and Qingdao Huanghai's last 5 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.06
40%
2.53
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
1.89
0.90
Qingdao Huanghai xG
3.06
33%
Home win
2.53
40%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
13%
7.52
10%
9.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.1 | 13.6 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.5 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Huanghai Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Huanghai?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.9%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Qingdao Huanghai expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 0.90 for Qingdao Huanghai, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Huanghai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 5 outings, Henan Jianye have picked up 0.60 PPG on a 0W 3D 2L record — L-D-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Qingdao Huanghai's form line: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games, 1.40 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-W.
Put side by side, Qingdao Huanghai are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Henan Jianye.
The Goals Picture
Henan Jianye are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Huanghai are on 0.60 scored and 0.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Henan Jianye have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games; Qingdao Huanghai in 20%.
Defensively: Qingdao Huanghai in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Early Season
Qingdao Huanghai
Early Season
Henan Jianye (Home) vs Qingdao Huanghai (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Henan Jianye
Early Season
Qingdao Huanghai
Early Season
❓ Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Huanghai Form FAQs
What form are Henan Jianye and Qingdao Huanghai in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 0W 3D 2L in their last 5 games (0.60 PPG), while Qingdao Huanghai have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 (1.40 PPG).
Have Henan Jianye or Qingdao Huanghai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Qingdao Huanghai in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to July 2021. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 8 August 2021, some 5 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Henan Jianye
0
Draws
0
Qingdao Huanghai
Recent Meetings
❓ Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Huanghai H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Qingdao Huanghai?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Henan Jianye have won 2, Qingdao Huanghai have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Qingdao Huanghai last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 August 2021: Qingdao Huanghai 0-1 Henan Jianye.
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and Qingdao Huanghai?
Henan Jianye have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Qingdao Huanghai see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 80%, Qingdao Huanghai 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Henan Jianye and 20% for Qingdao Huanghai.
On the defensive side: Qingdao Huanghai in 40%; Qingdao Huanghai in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Qingdao Huanghai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Huanghai Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Henan Jianye and Qingdao Huanghai matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 80% of Henan Jianye's recent matches and 20% of Qingdao Huanghai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Henan Jianye and Qingdao Huanghai matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Henan Jianye's recent games and 20% of Qingdao Huanghai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Henan Jianye and Qingdao Huanghai matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Henan Jianye's recent matches and 40% of Qingdao Huanghai's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Henan Jianye cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Qingdao Huanghai.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye beat Qingdao Huanghai 2-0 at Yuexiushan Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 0.99 xG and Qingdao Huanghai 0.90 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Henan Jianye beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Qingdao Huanghai landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 0.97 / defence 1.17 against Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.70 / defence 1.15, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 33% | Draw 40% | Qingdao Huanghai 28%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. The actual Henan Jianye win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 40%, Qingdao Huanghai 20%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
Qingdao Huanghai's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 60% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Qingdao Huanghai arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.60. Form was overturned, with Henan Jianye winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Henan Jianye scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Qingdao Huanghai shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.