Beijing Guoan 0-0 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beijing Guoan at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Tianjin Teda travel to Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium to take on Beijing Guoan. The game is scheduled for Monday 19 July 2021, 09:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Beijing Guoan stand at 3W 0D 2L from 5 Super League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Beijing Guoan have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Super League games this season, Tianjin Teda have recorded 1W 1D 3L from 5 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Tianjin Teda have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Beijing Guoan are in the better shape of the two on current Super League data — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Trading Patterns
Beijing Guoan in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Tianjin Teda in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they fail to score in 60% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beijing Guoan 60% versus Tianjin Teda 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 60% | Tianjin Teda 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 1.20 xG and Tianjin Teda 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.174 / defence 1.087 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.705 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 0.936 / away 1.036. Data: 5 Beijing Guoan games / 5 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 42% | Draw 38% | Tianjin Teda 21%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 2.38 | Draw 2.63 | Tianjin Teda 4.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 38% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Beijing Guoan as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 38% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beijing Guoan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.99 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Beijing Guoan 60% | Tianjin Teda 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 19 Jul 2021, 09:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 42% | Draw 38% | Tianjin Teda 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 42% | xG Beijing Guoan 1.20 / Tianjin Teda 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 1.174 / def 1.087 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.705 / def 1.087 | league avg home 0.936 / away 1.036 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Tianjin Teda xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 09:30 on Monday 19 July 2021 at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda?
Beijing Guoan 0 - 0 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 42% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 21% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Tianjin Teda?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Beijing Guoan and Tianjin Teda in?
Beijing Guoan (all comps): 3W-0D-2L in 5 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Tianjin Teda (all comps): 1W-1D-3L in 5 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Beijing Guoan's attack rating (1.17) and Tianjin Teda's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Tianjin Teda's attack versus Beijing Guoan's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.7%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
42%
2.41
38%
2.64
21%
4.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
1.99
0.79
Tianjin Teda xG
2.41
42%
Home win
2.64
38%
Draw
4.86
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
19%
5.32
6%
16.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 10.9 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.4 | 13.0 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.8 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 0.79 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Beijing Guoan's recent record stands at 3W 0D 2L from 5 games, a 1.80 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Tianjin Teda, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 3L across 5 games — 0.80 PPG, with L-D-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Beijing Guoan by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Tianjin Teda heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Beijing Guoan are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 0.60 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beijing Guoan have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Beijing Guoan have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Early Season
Tianjin Teda
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beijing Guoan and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 3W 0D 2L in their last 5 games (1.80 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 (0.80 PPG).
Have Beijing Guoan or Tianjin Teda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beijing Guoan have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Tianjin Teda in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Beijing Guoan's record when hosting Tianjin Teda specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Beijing Guoan
4
Draws
2
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Tianjin Teda?
From 10 meetings on record, Beijing Guoan have won 4, Tianjin Teda have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Beijing Guoan 2-4 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and Tianjin Teda?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Beijing Guoan see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beijing Guoan 60%, Tianjin Teda 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Beijing Guoan) and 40% (Tianjin Teda).
On the defensive side: Beijing Guoan keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Tianjin Teda in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beijing Guoan play Tianjin Teda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Beijing Guoan's recent matches and 40% of Tianjin Teda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Beijing Guoan's recent games and 40% of Tianjin Teda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beijing Guoan and Tianjin Teda tend to score early?
Beijing Guoan have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Tianjin Teda in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Beijing Guoan's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan and Tianjin Teda finished level at 0-0 at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 1.20 xG and Tianjin Teda 0.79 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Beijing Guoan fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.17 / defence 1.09 against Tianjin Teda attack 0.70 / defence 1.09, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 42% | Draw 38% | Tianjin Teda 21%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 60%, Tianjin Teda 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 60% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 0.80. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Beijing Guoan managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Tianjin Teda conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.