Henan Jianye 2-2 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium plays host to Henan Jianye versus Hangzhou Greentown in Super League, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Saturday 25 October 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Henan Jianye (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Henan Jianye have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hangzhou Greentown's overall Super League record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W D D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hangzhou Greentown's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Henan Jianye against 1.70 for Hangzhou Greentown. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Henan Jianye have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Hangzhou Greentown in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Henan Jianye 3W, Hangzhou Greentown 2W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.4 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Henan Jianye goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Hangzhou Greentown goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Henan Jianye 61% and Hangzhou Greentown 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 54% | Hangzhou Greentown 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 2.12 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 1.142 / defence 0.888 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.235 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 1.823 / away 1.413. Hangzhou Greentown have an above-average attack strength of 1.235 — the away xG of 1.55 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 57 Henan Jianye games / 57 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 50% | Draw 23% | Hangzhou Greentown 27%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 2.00 | Draw 4.35 | Hangzhou Greentown 3.70. Henan Jianye hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.67. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.67 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.12 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Henan Jianye at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.67 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Henan Jianye 70% | Hangzhou Greentown 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Oct 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 50% | Draw 23% | Hangzhou Greentown 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 70% | xG Henan Jianye 2.12 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 1.142 / def 0.888 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.235 / def 1.019 | league avg home 1.823 / away 1.413 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Hangzhou Greentown xG
70%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 25 October 2025 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Henan Jianye 2 - 2 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 50% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 27% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Henan Jianye and Hangzhou Greentown will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Hangzhou Greentown?
Record (7 meetings): Henan Jianye 3W | Draws 2 | Hangzhou Greentown 2W.
What form are Henan Jianye and Hangzhou Greentown in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Henan Jianye's attack at 1.14x the league average against Hangzhou Greentown's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 2.12 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hangzhou Greentown's attack (1.24x) against Henan Jianye's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
50%
2.00
23%
4.43
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
3.67
1.55
Hangzhou Greentown xG
2.00
50%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.35
Clean Sheet
21%
4.71
12%
8.33
Win to Nil
11%
9.40
3%
30.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 8.4 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 6.3 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 1.55 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 3.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Henan Jianye come into this having played 57 games, going 18W 14D 25L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-W. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hangzhou Greentown sit at 1.37 PPG from 57 outings (21W 15D 21L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Hangzhou Greentown is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Henan Jianye against 1.37 for Hangzhou Greentown. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Henan Jianye's home form reads 12W 5D 11L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.46 PPG return.
Away from home, Hangzhou Greentown have taken 0.93 points per game from 28 outings (7W 5D 16L). That's a step down from their 1.37 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hangzhou Greentown's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Henan Jianye come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Henan Jianye are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 1.95 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Henan Jianye have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Hangzhou Greentown in 67%.
Last 57 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Blended
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Henan Jianye and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 18W 14D 25L in their last 57 games (1.19 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 21W 15D 21L in their last 57 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Hangzhou Greentown away?
Henan Jianye's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 1.46 PPG; Hangzhou Greentown away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 30 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hangzhou Greentown won 3-0 on 30 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Henan Jianye have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Hangzhou Greentown — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Henan Jianye
3
Draws
3
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Hangzhou Greentown?
From 9 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 3, Hangzhou Greentown have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2026, when Henan Jianye 0-2 Hangzhou Greentown.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 61%, Hangzhou Greentown 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Henan Jianye and 68% for Hangzhou Greentown. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hangzhou Greentown in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Henan Jianye play Hangzhou Greentown?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Henan Jianye's games and 54% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Henan Jianye's matches and 68% of Hangzhou Greentown's.
Do Henan Jianye and Hangzhou Greentown tend to score early?
Henan Jianye have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Hangzhou Greentown in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Henan Jianye and Hangzhou Greentown share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye and Hangzhou Greentown finished level at 2-2 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 2.12 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.55 xG, a combined 3.67. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 1.14 / defence 0.89 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.24 / defence 1.02, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 50% | Draw 23% | Hangzhou Greentown 27%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 54%, Hangzhou Greentown 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Henan Jianye 1.19 PPG, Hangzhou Greentown 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.