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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Henan Jianye run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Dalian Zhixing.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Henan Jianye beat Dalian Zhixing 4-0 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 2.19 xG and Dalian Zhixing 1.26 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Henan Jianye beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dalian Zhixing landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 1.16 / defence 1.26 against Dalian Zhixing attack 0.74 / defence 1.11, drawn from 51/21 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 57% | Draw 23% | Dalian Zhixing 20%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 76%, Dalian Zhixing 24%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Henan Jianye's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 81% of their matches — today it did not.

Dalian Zhixing's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Dalian Zhixing arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.90. Form was overturned, with Henan Jianye winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line. Dalian Zhixing (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights