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Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 57%, yet in-form Dalian Zhixing provide a compelling counter-argument — this Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 22 as Henan Jianye welcome Dalian Zhixing to Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 24 August 2025 at 12:35 UTC.

Form Guide

Henan Jianye — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Henan Jianye at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Dalian Zhixing stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Zhixing, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Dalian Zhixing's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Dalian Zhixing — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Henan Jianye, 1 for Dalian Zhixing and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2025, ended 0–1 with Dalian Zhixing winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Henan Jianye trading profile (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 90% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 57%.

Dalian Zhixing trading profile (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 81% versus Dalian Zhixing 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 76% | Dalian Zhixing 24%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 2.19 xG and Dalian Zhixing 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 1.156 / defence 1.256 | Dalian Zhixing attack 0.736 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 1.705 / away 1.360. Data: 51 Henan Jianye games / 21 Dalian Zhixing games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 57% | Draw 23% | Dalian Zhixing 20%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 1.75 | Draw 4.35 | Dalian Zhixing 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Henan Jianye (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.19 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Henan Jianye as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Dalian Zhixing (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.45 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Henan Jianye 100% | Dalian Zhixing 50% BTTS from recent games.

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