Hebei Zhongji 0-4 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Henan Jianye at 82% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hebei Zhongji vs Henan Jianye encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Henan Jianye travel to Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2 to take on Hebei Zhongji in Super League (matchday 34). The game is scheduled for Friday 30 December 2022 at 07:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Hebei Zhongji stand at 1W 0D 9L — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 3.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
At home, Hebei Zhongji have gone 1W 0D 9L in their last 10 home games (0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 4.50 conceded per game.
Henan Jianye — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Henan Jianye have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Henan Jianye's 1.30 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Hebei Zhongji's 0.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Hebei Zhongji, 1 for Henan Jianye and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 8 Oct 2022, ended Hebei Zhongji 0–1 Henan Jianye — a Henan Jianye win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Hebei Zhongji trading profile (last 54 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 52% of games.
Henan Jianye trading profile (last 54 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hebei Zhongji 39% versus Henan Jianye 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hebei Zhongji 61% | Henan Jianye 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hebei Zhongji 0.78 xG and Henan Jianye 3.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hebei Zhongji attack 0.643 / defence 2.101 | Henan Jianye attack 1.048 / defence 0.849. League average goals — home 1.422 / away 1.386. Hebei Zhongji's attack rating of 0.643 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.78. Hebei Zhongji's defence rating of 2.101 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Henan Jianye's projected output up. Data: built from Hebei Zhongji's last 47 games and Henan Jianye's last 46.
Result probabilities: Hebei Zhongji 6% | Draw 12% | Henan Jianye 82%. Fair-value odds: Hebei Zhongji 17.01 | Draw 8.13 | Henan Jianye 1.22. The model has a clear lean to Henan Jianye (82%) — a 70pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 3.83. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.83 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Henan Jianye as the most likely outcome at 82% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 74% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Hebei Zhongji's last 10 home games and Henan Jianye's last 10 away games) averaging 3.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hebei Zhongji 40% (last 10 home games) | Henan Jianye 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hebei Zhongji vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, matchday 34 | Venue: Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2 • Kick-off: Friday 30 December 2022 at 07:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hebei Zhongji 6% | Draw 12% | Henan Jianye 82% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% (Under 26%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Hebei Zhongji 0.78 / Henan Jianye 3.05 • Poisson strength factors: Hebei Zhongji attack 0.643 / def 2.101 | Henan Jianye attack 1.048 / def 0.849 | league avg home 1.422 / away 1.386 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (82%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Hebei Zhongji xG
Expected Goals
3.05
Henan Jianye xG
52%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hebei Zhongji vs Henan Jianye FAQs
What time does Hebei Zhongji vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Hebei Zhongji vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 07:00 UK time on Friday 30 December 2022 at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2.
What was the final score in Hebei Zhongji vs Henan Jianye?
Hebei Zhongji 0 - 4 Henan Jianye.
Where is Hebei Zhongji vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2.
What competition is Hebei Zhongji vs Henan Jianye part of?
Hebei Zhongji vs Henan Jianye is a Super League fixture (matchday 34) (China).
Who is favourite to win Hebei Zhongji vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Hebei Zhongji a 6% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 82% chance, and a 12% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hebei Zhongji vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Hebei Zhongji and Henan Jianye will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hebei Zhongji vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hebei Zhongji's attack at 0.64x the league average against Henan Jianye's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 0.78 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Henan Jianye's attack versus Hebei Zhongji's defence, projects 3.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hebei Zhongji's last 47 games and Henan Jianye's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-3 carries the highest individual probability at 10.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (10.1%), 1-3 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
6%
17.01
12%
8.13
82%
1.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 3
10.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
1 – 3
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Hebei Zhongji xG
Total xG
3.83
3.05
Henan Jianye xG
17.01
6%
Home win
8.13
12%
Draw
1.22
82%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
5%
21.14
46%
2.17
Win to Nil
0%
–
38%
2.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 6.6 | 10.1 | 10.3 | 7.9 | 4.8 |
| 1 | 1.7 | 5.2 | 7.9 | 8.0 | 6.1 | 3.7 |
| 2 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 |
| 3 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hebei Zhongji vs Henan Jianye Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hebei Zhongji vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 0-3 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Hebei Zhongji and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Hebei Zhongji and 3.05 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 3.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Hebei Zhongji vs Henan Jianye?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 82%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 54 outings, Hebei Zhongji have picked up 0.56 PPG on a 8W 6D 40L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Henan Jianye's form line: 22W 17D 15L from 54 games, 1.54 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-D.
Put side by side, Henan Jianye are the form team by 0.98 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hebei Zhongji.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Hebei Zhongji have posted 0.81 PPG from their last 26 home games (6W 3D 17L).
On the road, Henan Jianye have gone 7W 10D 9L from their last 26 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Hebei Zhongji are averaging 0.59 goals scored and 2.56 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 1.33 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: Henan Jianye in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hebei Zhongji
Current Season
Henan Jianye
Current Season
Hebei Zhongji (Home) vs Henan Jianye (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hebei Zhongji
Current Season
Henan Jianye
Current Season
❓ Hebei Zhongji vs Henan Jianye Form FAQs
What form are Hebei Zhongji and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Hebei Zhongji have gone 8W 6D 40L in their last 54 games (0.56 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 22W 17D 15L in their last 54 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hebei Zhongji at home or Henan Jianye away?
Henan Jianye's away record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hebei Zhongji at home: 0.81 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Hebei Zhongji or Henan Jianye been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hebei Zhongji have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Henan Jianye in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 30 December 2022, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Hebei Zhongji
0
Draws
2
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Hebei Zhongji vs Henan Jianye H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hebei Zhongji and Henan Jianye?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Hebei Zhongji have won 0, Henan Jianye have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hebei Zhongji and Henan Jianye last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 December 2022: Hebei Zhongji 0-4 Henan Jianye.
Who has won more matches between Hebei Zhongji and Henan Jianye?
Henan Jianye have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hebei Zhongji are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Henan Jianye see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hebei Zhongji 38%, Henan Jianye 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Hebei Zhongji) and 31% (Henan Jianye).
On the defensive side: Henan Jianye in 35%; Hebei Zhongji have failed to score in 50% of games; Henan Jianye in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hebei Zhongji home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hebei Zhongji vs Henan Jianye Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hebei Zhongji and Henan Jianye matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Hebei Zhongji's recent matches and 42% of Henan Jianye's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Hebei Zhongji and Henan Jianye matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Hebei Zhongji's recent games and 31% of Henan Jianye's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hebei Zhongji and Henan Jianye matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Hebei Zhongji's recent matches and 50% of Henan Jianye's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Henan Jianye run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Hebei Zhongji.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye beat Hebei Zhongji 0-4 at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2, Regular Season - 34, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hebei Zhongji 0.78 xG and Henan Jianye 3.05 xG, a combined 3.83. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Henan Jianye outscored their 3.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hebei Zhongji attack 0.64 / defence 2.10 against Henan Jianye attack 1.05 / defence 0.85, drawn from 47/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hebei Zhongji 6% | Draw 12% | Henan Jianye 82%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 82%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hebei Zhongji 61%, Henan Jianye 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hebei Zhongji's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 52% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Henan Jianye arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 0.56. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Hebei Zhongji (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.