Chengdu Better City 3-0 Dalian Aerbin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chengdu Better City at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Aerbin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Dalian Aerbin travel to Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park to take on Chengdu Better City. The game is scheduled for Saturday 31 December 2022, 07:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chengdu Better City stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Super League matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Chengdu Better City's home record at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Super League appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park.
Across all Super League games this season, Dalian Aerbin have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Dalian Aerbin away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Chengdu Better City at 2.40 PPG versus Dalian Aerbin's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Chengdu Better City have won 1, Dalian Aerbin 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 9 Oct 2022, ended 0–2 with Dalian Aerbin winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Chengdu Better City in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Dalian Aerbin in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chengdu Better City 46% versus Dalian Aerbin 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chengdu Better City 40% | Dalian Aerbin 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chengdu Better City 1.85 xG and Dalian Aerbin 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chengdu Better City attack 1.221 / defence 0.709 | Dalian Aerbin attack 1.093 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 1.384. Chengdu Better City's defence rating of 0.709 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 33 Chengdu Better City games / 47 Dalian Aerbin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 55% | Draw 25% | Dalian Aerbin 21%. Fair-value odds: Chengdu Better City 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | Dalian Aerbin 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Chengdu Better City (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chengdu Better City as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Chengdu Better City 50% | Dalian Aerbin 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Aerbin | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Dec 2022, 07:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 55% | Draw 25% | Dalian Aerbin 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 56% | xG Chengdu Better City 1.85 / Dalian Aerbin 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Chengdu Better City attack 1.221 / def 0.709 | Dalian Aerbin attack 1.093 / def 1.069 | league avg home 1.419 / away 1.384 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Chengdu Better City xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Dalian Aerbin xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Aerbin kick off?
Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Aerbin kicked off at 07:00 on Saturday 31 December 2022 at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park.
What was the final score in Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Aerbin?
Chengdu Better City 3 - 0 Dalian Aerbin.
Where is Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Aerbin being played?
The match is being played at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park.
What competition is Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Aerbin part of?
Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Aerbin is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our statistical model gives Chengdu Better City a 55% chance of winning, Dalian Aerbin a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Chengdu Better City and Dalian Aerbin will score (BTTS).
Will Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Aerbin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Dalian Aerbin?
Record (3 meetings): Chengdu Better City 1W | Draws 1 | Dalian Aerbin 1W.
What form are Chengdu Better City and Dalian Aerbin in?
Chengdu Better City (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Dalian Aerbin (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Chengdu Better City's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Dalian Aerbin's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.85. The same calculation in reverse, Dalian Aerbin's attack versus Chengdu Better City's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
55%
1.83
25%
4.05
21%
4.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Chengdu Better City xG
Total xG
2.92
1.07
Dalian Aerbin xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
4.82
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
16%
6.37
Win to Nil
19%
5.35
3%
30.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 10.7 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Chengdu Better City and Dalian Aerbin expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Chengdu Better City and 1.07 for Dalian Aerbin, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Aerbin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 35 outings, Chengdu Better City have picked up 1.89 PPG on a 18W 12D 5L record — W-D-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Dalian Aerbin's form line: 13W 10D 12L from 35 games, 1.40 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W.
Put side by side, Chengdu Better City are the form team by 0.49 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dalian Aerbin.
Venue Form
On home soil, Chengdu Better City have posted 1.88 PPG from 17 outings (8W 8D 1L).
On the road, Dalian Aerbin have gone 6W 5D 6L from 17 away games — 1.35 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chengdu Better City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Chengdu Better City are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Dalian Aerbin are on 1.49 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dalian Aerbin in 60%.
Defensively: Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chengdu Better City
Current Season
Dalian Aerbin
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chengdu Better City and Dalian Aerbin in coming into this match?
Chengdu Better City have gone 18W 12D 5L in their last 35 games (1.89 PPG), while Dalian Aerbin have gone 13W 10D 12L in their last 35 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chengdu Better City at home or Dalian Aerbin away?
Chengdu Better City's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chengdu Better City at home: 1.88 PPG; Dalian Aerbin away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Chengdu Better City or Dalian Aerbin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Dalian Aerbin in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 July 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Dec 2022, when Chengdu Better City won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chengdu Better City's record when hosting Dalian Aerbin specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Chengdu Better City
2
Draws
1
Dalian Aerbin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Dalian Aerbin?
From 6 meetings on record, Chengdu Better City have won 3, Dalian Aerbin have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chengdu Better City and Dalian Aerbin last play each other?
They last met on 22 July 2023, when Chengdu Better City 4-1 Dalian Aerbin.
Who has won more matches between Chengdu Better City and Dalian Aerbin?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chengdu Better City 59%, Dalian Aerbin 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Chengdu Better City) and 65% (Dalian Aerbin). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chengdu Better City keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Dalian Aerbin in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chengdu Better City home games / Dalian Aerbin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chengdu Better City play Dalian Aerbin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Chengdu Better City's games and 53% of Dalian Aerbin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Aerbin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Chengdu Better City's matches and 65% of Dalian Aerbin's.
Do Chengdu Better City and Dalian Aerbin tend to score early?
Chengdu Better City have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Dalian Aerbin in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Chengdu Better City run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Dalian Aerbin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chengdu Better City beat Dalian Aerbin 3-0 at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park, Regular Season - 34, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chengdu Better City 1.85 xG and Dalian Aerbin 1.07 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Chengdu Better City beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dalian Aerbin landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chengdu Better City attack 1.22 / defence 0.71 against Dalian Aerbin attack 1.09 / defence 1.07, drawn from 33/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chengdu Better City 55% | Draw 25% | Dalian Aerbin 21%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chengdu Better City 40%, Dalian Aerbin 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.40. That form edge translated into the three points. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.82 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Dalian Aerbin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.