Hebei Zhongji 0-1 Chengdu Better City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chengdu Better City at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hebei Zhongji vs Chengdu Better City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Hebei Zhongji welcome Chengdu Better City to Mission Hills Football Base Stadium in Super League (matchday 11). Kick-off is Friday 5 August 2022 at 13:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Hebei Zhongji stand at 1W 0D 9L — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.
Hebei Zhongji's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Chengdu Better City — last 10 games: 2W 6D 2L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Chengdu Better City away from home: 2W 3D 1L from their last 6 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from their last 6 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Chengdu Better City are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Hebei Zhongji trading profile (last 12 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 58% of games.
Chengdu Better City trading profile (last 12 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hebei Zhongji 42% versus Chengdu Better City 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hebei Zhongji 58% | Chengdu Better City 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hebei Zhongji 0.90 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hebei Zhongji attack 0.723 / defence 1.335 | Chengdu Better City attack 0.742 / defence 0.879. League average goals — home 1.420 / away 1.119. Hebei Zhongji's attack rating of 0.723 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.90. Chengdu Better City's attack rating of 0.742 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.11. Hebei Zhongji's defence rating of 1.335 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Chengdu Better City's projected output up. Data: built from Hebei Zhongji's last 24 games and Chengdu Better City's last 10.
Result probabilities: Hebei Zhongji 29% | Draw 32% | Chengdu Better City 39%. Fair-value odds: Hebei Zhongji 3.48 | Draw 3.14 | Chengdu Better City 2.54. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chengdu Better City as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chengdu Better City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.01 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Hebei Zhongji's last 10 home games and Chengdu Better City's last 6 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hebei Zhongji 30% (last 10 home games) | Chengdu Better City 33% (last 6 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hebei Zhongji vs Chengdu Better City | Competition: Super League, matchday 11 | Venue: Mission Hills Football Base Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 5 August 2022 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hebei Zhongji 29% | Draw 32% | Chengdu Better City 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Hebei Zhongji 0.90 / Chengdu Better City 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Hebei Zhongji attack 0.723 / def 1.335 | Chengdu Better City attack 0.742 / def 0.879 | league avg home 1.420 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Hebei Zhongji xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Chengdu Better City xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hebei Zhongji vs Chengdu Better City FAQs
What time does Hebei Zhongji vs Chengdu Better City kick off?
Hebei Zhongji vs Chengdu Better City kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Friday 5 August 2022 at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium.
What was the final score in Hebei Zhongji vs Chengdu Better City?
Hebei Zhongji 0 - 1 Chengdu Better City.
Where is Hebei Zhongji vs Chengdu Better City being played?
The match is being played at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium.
What competition is Hebei Zhongji vs Chengdu Better City part of?
Hebei Zhongji vs Chengdu Better City is a Super League fixture (matchday 11) (China).
Who is favourite to win Hebei Zhongji vs Chengdu Better City?
Our statistical model gives Hebei Zhongji a 29% chance of winning, Chengdu Better City a 39% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hebei Zhongji vs Chengdu Better City?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Hebei Zhongji and Chengdu Better City will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Hebei Zhongji vs Chengdu Better City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Hebei Zhongji's attack rating (0.72) and Chengdu Better City's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 0.90 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Chengdu Better City's attack versus Hebei Zhongji's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hebei Zhongji's last 24 games and Chengdu Better City's last 10 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
29%
3.48
32%
3.14
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Hebei Zhongji xG
Total xG
2.01
1.11
Chengdu Better City xG
3.48
29%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
41%
2.46
Win to Nil
9%
10.55
16%
6.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 14.8 | 8.2 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hebei Zhongji vs Chengdu Better City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hebei Zhongji vs Chengdu Better City?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Hebei Zhongji and Chengdu Better City expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Hebei Zhongji and 1.11 for Chengdu Better City, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Hebei Zhongji vs Chengdu Better City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hebei Zhongji come into this having played 12 games, going 1W 0D 11L for 0.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L.
On the other side, Chengdu Better City sit at 1.33 PPG from 12 outings (3W 7D 2L), a run that reads D-D-D-W-W across their last five.
Chengdu Better City carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.08 PPG clear of Hebei Zhongji — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Hebei Zhongji's home form reads 1W 0D 5L across their last 6 home games, a 0.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Chengdu Better City have taken 1.50 points per game from their last 6 away games (2W 3D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chengdu Better City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hebei Zhongji are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.08 conceded per game recently; Chengdu Better City are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 12 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hebei Zhongji
Blended
Chengdu Better City
Blended
Hebei Zhongji (Home) vs Chengdu Better City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hebei Zhongji
Blended
Chengdu Better City
Blended
❓ Hebei Zhongji vs Chengdu Better City Form FAQs
What form are Hebei Zhongji and Chengdu Better City in coming into this match?
Hebei Zhongji have gone 1W 0D 11L in their last 12 games (0.25 PPG), while Chengdu Better City have gone 3W 7D 2L in their last 12 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hebei Zhongji at home or Chengdu Better City away?
Chengdu Better City's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hebei Zhongji at home: 0.50 PPG; Chengdu Better City away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Hebei Zhongji or Chengdu Better City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hebei Zhongji have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Chengdu Better City in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 3 November 2022, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Hebei Zhongji
0
Draws
2
Chengdu Better City
Recent Meetings
❓ Hebei Zhongji vs Chengdu Better City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hebei Zhongji and Chengdu Better City?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Hebei Zhongji have won 0, Chengdu Better City have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hebei Zhongji and Chengdu Better City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 November 2022: Chengdu Better City 6-0 Hebei Zhongji.
Who has won more matches between Hebei Zhongji and Chengdu Better City?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hebei Zhongji are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Chengdu Better City see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Hebei Zhongji 33% BTTS, Chengdu Better City 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for Hebei Zhongji and 17% for Chengdu Better City.
On the defensive side: Chengdu Better City in 50%; Hebei Zhongji have failed to score in 67% of games; Chengdu Better City in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hebei Zhongji home games / Chengdu Better City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hebei Zhongji vs Chengdu Better City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hebei Zhongji and Chengdu Better City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Hebei Zhongji's recent matches and 33% of Chengdu Better City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Hebei Zhongji and Chengdu Better City matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Hebei Zhongji's recent games and 17% of Chengdu Better City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hebei Zhongji and Chengdu Better City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Hebei Zhongji's recent matches and 50% of Chengdu Better City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Chengdu Better City edge out Hebei Zhongji 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chengdu Better City beat Hebei Zhongji 0-1 at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hebei Zhongji 0.90 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.11 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Hebei Zhongji fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hebei Zhongji attack 0.72 / defence 1.33 against Chengdu Better City attack 0.74 / defence 0.88, drawn from 24/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hebei Zhongji 29% | Draw 32% | Chengdu Better City 39%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hebei Zhongji 58%, Chengdu Better City 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hebei Zhongji's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 58% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.25. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Hebei Zhongji (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.