Dalian Aerbin 1-1 SHANGHAI SIPG – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dalian Aerbin vs SHANGHAI SIPG encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees SHANGHAI SIPG travel to Puwan Stadium to take on Dalian Aerbin. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 August 2022, 10:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dalian Aerbin stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Aerbin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Puwan Stadium, Dalian Aerbin have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
SHANGHAI SIPG — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. SHANGHAI SIPG are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Dalian Aerbin, 2 for SHANGHAI SIPG and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2021, ended 0–5 with SHANGHAI SIPG winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Dalian Aerbin trading profile (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
SHANGHAI SIPG trading profile (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Aerbin 47% versus SHANGHAI SIPG 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalian Aerbin 47% | SHANGHAI SIPG 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Aerbin 1.08 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.922 / defence 1.232 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.027 / defence 0.844. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.128. Data: 24 Dalian Aerbin games / 24 SHANGHAI SIPG games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 28% | Draw 27% | SHANGHAI SIPG 45%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Aerbin 3.57 | Draw 3.70 | SHANGHAI SIPG 2.22. SHANGHAI SIPG hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SHANGHAI SIPG at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SHANGHAI SIPG offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Dalian Aerbin 50% | SHANGHAI SIPG 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Aerbin vs SHANGHAI SIPG | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Puwan Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Aug 2022, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 28% | Draw 27% | SHANGHAI SIPG 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Dalian Aerbin 1.08 / SHANGHAI SIPG 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.922 / def 1.232 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.027 / def 0.844 | league avg home 1.389 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Dalian Aerbin xG
Expected Goals
1.43
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalian Aerbin vs SHANGHAI SIPG kick off?
Dalian Aerbin vs SHANGHAI SIPG kicked off at 10:30 on Saturday 6 August 2022 at Puwan Stadium.
What was the final score in Dalian Aerbin vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Dalian Aerbin 1 - 1 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Where is Dalian Aerbin vs SHANGHAI SIPG being played?
The match is being played at Puwan Stadium.
What competition is Dalian Aerbin vs SHANGHAI SIPG part of?
Dalian Aerbin vs SHANGHAI SIPG is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Aerbin vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Aerbin a 28% chance of winning, SHANGHAI SIPG a 45% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Aerbin vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Dalian Aerbin and SHANGHAI SIPG will score (BTTS).
Will Dalian Aerbin vs SHANGHAI SIPG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and SHANGHAI SIPG?
Record (2 meetings): Dalian Aerbin 0W | Draws 0 | SHANGHAI SIPG 2W.
What form are Dalian Aerbin and SHANGHAI SIPG in?
Dalian Aerbin (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Dalian Aerbin's attack rating (0.92) and SHANGHAI SIPG's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SHANGHAI SIPG's attack versus Dalian Aerbin's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.0%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
28%
3.52
27%
3.74
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Dalian Aerbin xG
Total xG
2.51
1.43
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
3.52
28%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
7%
14.66
15%
6.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 11.6 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Aerbin vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Dalian Aerbin and SHANGHAI SIPG expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Dalian Aerbin and 1.43 for SHANGHAI SIPG, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Aerbin vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dalian Aerbin's recent record stands at 8W 6D 18L from 32 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Dalian Aerbin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SHANGHAI SIPG, meanwhile, have gone 18W 7D 7L across 32 games — 1.91 PPG, with W-D-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for SHANGHAI SIPG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours SHANGHAI SIPG by 0.97 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dalian Aerbin heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Dalian Aerbin have managed 4W 3D 8L from 15 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SHANGHAI SIPG's away record stands at 6W 5D 4L across 15 trips, a 1.53 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dalian Aerbin are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; SHANGHAI SIPG are on 1.62 scored and 0.72 conceded.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dalian Aerbin and SHANGHAI SIPG in coming into this match?
Dalian Aerbin have gone 8W 6D 18L in their last 32 games (0.94 PPG), while SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 18W 7D 7L in their last 32 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dalian Aerbin at home or SHANGHAI SIPG away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dalian Aerbin at home: 1.00 PPG; SHANGHAI SIPG away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Dalian Aerbin or SHANGHAI SIPG been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dalian Aerbin have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, SHANGHAI SIPG in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dalian Aerbin and SHANGHAI SIPG runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 November 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Aug 2021, when SHANGHAI SIPG won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dalian Aerbin's record when hosting SHANGHAI SIPG specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Dalian Aerbin
2
Draws
4
SHANGHAI SIPG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and SHANGHAI SIPG?
From 6 meetings on record, Dalian Aerbin have won 0, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Aerbin and SHANGHAI SIPG last play each other?
They last met on 4 November 2023, when Dalian Aerbin 2-3 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between Dalian Aerbin and SHANGHAI SIPG?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
SHANGHAI SIPG see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dalian Aerbin 47%, SHANGHAI SIPG 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Dalian Aerbin) and 47% (SHANGHAI SIPG).
On the defensive side: SHANGHAI SIPG in 33%; Dalian Aerbin have failed to score in 33% of games; SHANGHAI SIPG in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Aerbin home games / SHANGHAI SIPG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dalian Aerbin play SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Dalian Aerbin's recent matches and 53% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dalian Aerbin vs SHANGHAI SIPG usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Dalian Aerbin's recent games and 47% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dalian Aerbin and SHANGHAI SIPG tend to score early?
Dalian Aerbin have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, SHANGHAI SIPG in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dalian Aerbin and SHANGHAI SIPG share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Puwan Stadium, Regular Season - 11, as Dalian Aerbin and SHANGHAI SIPG drew 1-1 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Aerbin 1.08 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.43 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Aerbin attack 0.92 / defence 1.23 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.03 / defence 0.84, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Aerbin 28% | Draw 27% | SHANGHAI SIPG 45%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalian Aerbin 47%, SHANGHAI SIPG 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.