Hangzhou Greentown 6-0 Yunnan Yukun – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hangzhou Greentown vs Yunnan Yukun encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hangzhou Greentown host Yunnan Yukun at Huizhou Olympic Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 29 August 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Huizhou Olympic Stadium, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Yunnan Yukun stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Yunnan Yukun, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Yunnan Yukun have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Hangzhou Greentown at 1.10 PPG versus Yunnan Yukun's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Hangzhou Greentown, 0 for Yunnan Yukun and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2026, ended 2–1 with Hangzhou Greentown winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Hangzhou Greentown trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Yunnan Yukun trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 85% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hangzhou Greentown 66% and Yunnan Yukun 77% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hangzhou Greentown 68% | Yunnan Yukun 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 2.37 xG and Yunnan Yukun 2.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.094 / defence 1.264 | Yunnan Yukun attack 1.289 / defence 1.280. League average goals — home 1.694 / away 1.387. Yunnan Yukun bring a strong defensive rating of 1.280 — this is suppressing Hangzhou Greentown's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Yunnan Yukun have an above-average attack strength of 1.289 — the away xG of 2.26 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 53 Hangzhou Greentown games / 54 Yunnan Yukun games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 42% | Draw 19% | Yunnan Yukun 38%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 2.38 | Draw 5.26 | Yunnan Yukun 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 19% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 84% | BTTS probability 81% | Total xG 4.63. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 84% — a total xG of 4.63 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 81% reflects that both xG figures (2.37 / 2.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hangzhou Greentown at 42% — marginal model lean. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 4.63 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 84% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 81%. Form rates corroborate: Hangzhou Greentown 70% | Yunnan Yukun 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs Yunnan Yukun | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Huizhou Olympic Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Aug 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 42% | Draw 19% | Yunnan Yukun 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 84% | BTTS 81% | xG Hangzhou Greentown 2.37 / Yunnan Yukun 2.26 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.094 / def 1.264 | Yunnan Yukun attack 1.289 / def 1.280 | league avg home 1.694 / away 1.387 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.37
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
2.26
Yunnan Yukun xG
81%
BTTS
95%
Over 1.5
84%
Over 2.5
68%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs Yunnan Yukun kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Yunnan Yukun kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 29 August 2026 at Huizhou Olympic Stadium.
What was the final score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Yunnan Yukun?
Hangzhou Greentown 6 - 0 Yunnan Yukun.
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs Yunnan Yukun being played?
The match is being played at Huizhou Olympic Stadium.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs Yunnan Yukun part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Yunnan Yukun is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 42% chance of winning, Yunnan Yukun a 38% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our model estimates a 81% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and Yunnan Yukun will score (BTTS).
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs Yunnan Yukun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 84%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Yunnan Yukun?
Record (3 meetings): Hangzhou Greentown 2W | Draws 1 | Yunnan Yukun 0W.
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Yunnan Yukun in?
Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Yunnan Yukun (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Hangzhou Greentown's attack rating (1.09) and Yunnan Yukun's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 2.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Yunnan Yukun's attack versus Hangzhou Greentown's defence, projects 2.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 7.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (6.2%), 1-1 (5.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 19% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
42%
2.35
19%
5.24
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
6.2%
Home win
1 – 2
5.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.37
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Total xG
4.63
2.26
Yunnan Yukun xG
2.35
42%
Home win
5.24
19%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
95%
Over 1.5
1.05
5%
Under 1.5
20.00
84%
Over 2.5
1.19
16%
Under 2.5
6.25
68%
Over 3.5
1.47
32%
Under 3.5
3.12
49%
Over 4.5
2.04
51%
Under 4.5
1.96
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
81%
BTTS Yes
1.23
19%
BTTS No
5.32
Clean Sheet
10%
9.57
9%
10.73
Win to Nil
4%
22.53
4%
27.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 2.3 | 5.2 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 6.2 | 7.0 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hangzhou Greentown vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our Poisson model rates 2-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.0%.
How many goals are Hangzhou Greentown and Yunnan Yukun expected to score?
The model projects 2.37 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 2.26 for Yunnan Yukun, a combined total of 4.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Hangzhou Greentown vs Yunnan Yukun?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 53 outings, Hangzhou Greentown have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 18W 18D 17L record — D-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Hangzhou Greentown is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Yunnan Yukun's form line: 21W 14D 18L from 53 games, 1.45 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-D. The sample for Yunnan Yukun is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hangzhou Greentown on 1.36 PPG, Yunnan Yukun on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Hangzhou Greentown have posted 1.69 PPG from 26 outings (11W 11D 4L).
On the road, Yunnan Yukun have gone 5W 8D 13L from 26 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.45 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Yunnan Yukun's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hangzhou Greentown come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hangzhou Greentown are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Yunnan Yukun are on 1.81 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hangzhou Greentown have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Yunnan Yukun in 77%.
Last 53 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
Yunnan Yukun
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Yunnan Yukun in coming into this match?
Hangzhou Greentown have gone 18W 18D 17L in their last 53 games (1.36 PPG), while Yunnan Yukun have gone 21W 14D 18L in their last 53 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hangzhou Greentown at home or Yunnan Yukun away?
Hangzhou Greentown's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hangzhou Greentown at home: 1.69 PPG; Yunnan Yukun away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hangzhou Greentown and Yunnan Yukun runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Hangzhou Greentown go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Aug 2026, when Hangzhou Greentown won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hangzhou Greentown's record when hosting Yunnan Yukun specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Hangzhou Greentown
1
Draws
0
Yunnan Yukun
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Yunnan Yukun?
From 4 meetings on record, Hangzhou Greentown have won 3, Yunnan Yukun have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hangzhou Greentown and Yunnan Yukun last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Hangzhou Greentown 6-0 Yunnan Yukun.
Who has won more matches between Hangzhou Greentown and Yunnan Yukun?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Yunnan Yukun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Hangzhou Greentown at 73%, Yunnan Yukun at 85%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Hangzhou Greentown and 69% for Yunnan Yukun. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hangzhou Greentown home games / Yunnan Yukun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hangzhou Greentown play Yunnan Yukun?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Hangzhou Greentown's games and 85% of Yunnan Yukun's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hangzhou Greentown vs Yunnan Yukun usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Hangzhou Greentown's matches and 69% of Yunnan Yukun's.
Do Hangzhou Greentown and Yunnan Yukun tend to score early?
Hangzhou Greentown have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Yunnan Yukun in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hangzhou Greentown run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Yunnan Yukun.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown beat Yunnan Yukun 6-0 at Huizhou Olympic Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 2.37 xG and Yunnan Yukun 2.26 xG, a combined 4.63. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Hangzhou Greentown beat their projection by 3.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Yunnan Yukun landed 2.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.09 / defence 1.26 against Yunnan Yukun attack 1.29 / defence 1.28, drawn from 53/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 42% | Draw 19% | Yunnan Yukun 38%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 84%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 95% and landed. Over 3.5 was 68% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 81% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 68%, Yunnan Yukun 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Yunnan Yukun's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hangzhou Greentown 1.36 PPG, Yunnan Yukun 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hangzhou Greentown win broke the near-deadlock. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line. Yunnan Yukun (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 2.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.