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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Hangzhou Greentown cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Yunnan Yukun.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hangzhou Greentown beat Yunnan Yukun 3-1 at Huizhou Olympic Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 2.02 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.29 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Hangzhou Greentown beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.20 / defence 1.12 against Yunnan Yukun attack 0.88 / defence 1.01, drawn from 46/16 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 54% | Draw 21% | Yunnan Yukun 24%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 69%, Yunnan Yukun 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Yunnan Yukun's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hangzhou Greentown 1.25 PPG, Yunnan Yukun 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hangzhou Greentown win broke the near-deadlock. Yunnan Yukun (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights